US-Saudi Coalition Airstrikes Target Iranian-Backed Militias in Iraq, Killing 6 Iranian Advisors and Causing Oil Prices to Surge 7.3%

The U.S. Central Command announced on July 29th Eastern Time via social media that the U.S. military had conducted airstrikes on targets within Iran. This latest strike came as a strong response to Tehran's attempt to attack Middle Eastern U.S. forces the day before and followed joint U.S.-Saudi airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. The joint U.S.-Saudi action resulted in the deaths of at least 20 militia fighters and 6 Iranian advisors.

U.S. President Trump had earlier vowed retaliation after Iran targeted a U.S. military base in Jordan. Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced via the official news agency Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) that they had fired ballistic missiles at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, a key U.S. military outpost in the Middle East. The Jordanian military reported successfully intercepting and destroying 5 Iranian missiles, with no immediate reports of casualties or facility damage.

Prior to this, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia had jointly deployed warplanes to conduct airstrikes on multiple logistical and weapons facilities in eastern Iraq. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defense emphasized that Saudi Arabia 'does not seek to escalate conflicts but will respond to any aggressive actions.' Saudi Arabia accused Iraqi militias of launching drones at its oil facilities over the past two days. An Iraqi militia umbrella organization initially denied the accusations, while the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacking Saudi energy facilities as part of a related conflict.

The Iraqi militia alliance 'Popular Mobilization Forces' stated that the U.S.-Saudi airstrikes at night caused the deaths of at least 20 fighters and injured 32 others. Two Iraqi militia officials anonymously told the Associated Press that an additional 6 Iranian advisors were killed. The deputy governor of Iran's Markazi Province, responsible for political, security, and social affairs, told Iranian official media that 4 advisors had died. The Popular Mobilization Forces is a predominantly Shia militia alliance supported by Iran, theoretically under the command of the Iraqi military but in practice highly autonomous, with some groups having previously attacked U.S. facilities. The alliance joined anti-terror operations after the Islamic State occupied large parts of Iraq in 2014 and was later designated as an 'independent military formation' within the Iraqi armed forces.

The Iraqi government condemned the U.S.-Saudi airstrikes. The office of Iraqi President Nizar Amedi described it as a 'blatant violation of Iraqi sovereignty.' The Iraqi National Security Council stated that the airstrikes occurred while the Iraqi government was communicating with relevant parties to investigate and address all concerns raised by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The council noted that the airstrikes resulted in the deaths of 'some innocent civilians.' The scheduled visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi to Saudi Arabia on July 30th was indefinitely postponed.

Meanwhile, two gas ships in Egypt's Damietta port caught fire due to drone attacks. British maritime security company Ambrey stated that the targets included a U.S.-owned floating storage facility and a Greek-flagged tanker. The identity of the attackers is not yet confirmed, and there are no reports of casualties. Egypt is a close ally and regional mediator of the U.S. and one of the few countries in the Middle East not directly affected by military actions in this conflict. If the attack is confirmed to have come from Iran or its allies, it would signify a significant expansion of the conflict.

Trump, in an interview at the White House Oval Office, responded to whether the attack on the Egyptian gas ships was related to Iran by saying, 'This is the same old routine again.' He emphasized, 'The situation will gradually become clear. In the meantime, we will strike back strongly. They know the consequences, even if they still ask us to exercise restraint.'

This multi-front conflict has escalated again after a relatively calm few days, increasing the risk of a full-scale war resuming and highlighting the difficulty of quelling this five-month-long conflict that has impacted the global economy and is unpopular within the U.S. The fighting could further exacerbate concerns about the significant depletion of advanced U.S. military ammunition stocks, which are crucial for defending U.S. bases and allies.

Mediators had previously expressed optimism about the U.S. and Iran returning to the negotiating table, but recent clashes in the Strait of Hormuz have led to the collapse of transitional agreements. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global energy supply, and Iran's attacks have once again effectively closed this passage. A regional official stated that mediators are 'still making bilateral efforts' to restore calm and bring the ceasefire back on track, but did not disclose whether any progress has been made. Another Arab official noted that regional countries will continue to push for de-escalation, but with both sides continuing to attack each other without signs of stopping, the chances of successful mediation are slim. 'Our current situation is very bad.'

The Houthis may choke off the Mandeb Strait, a critical trade route from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The resumption of hostilities immediately pushed up oil prices. The international oil price benchmark Brent crude surged 7.3%, reaching $88.093 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia is also embroiled in a new round of conflict with the Houthi rebels. The Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi shipping, potentially choking off another critical Middle Eastern trade route—the Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. On July 27th, the Houthis stated they had launched drone attacks on Saudi oil and gas facilities used to transport oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Yanbu is an important export alternative for Saudi Arabia after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. The Houthis claimed this attack was in response to Saudi drones violating Yemeni airspace.

The Associated Press analyzed satellite imagery from Planet Labs on July 27th, revealing damage to Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing facility. The facility has a daily processing capacity of approximately 7 million barrels of oil. A regional official stated that the Jizan refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast suffered 'relatively serious' damage from Houthi attacks on July 25th and has temporarily shut down, with repairs expected to take several days. The refinery has a daily production capacity of 400,000 barrels.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the main focus of the conflict. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, in an interview with Iranian state television, announced that Iran had rejected Oman's proposal for joint management of shipping. Oman proposed dividing the strait into two lanes. Iran put forward a counter-proposal, advocating for temporarily allowing ships to pass through its territorial waters, and emphasized that Tehran's policy is to ensure the strait 'will never return to its pre-war state,' when ships could pass freely.