Typhoon White Dolphin Update: Path Forecast, Typhoon Holiday Possibility, Landfall Risk, and Impact Summary

Typhoon White Dolphin, the 13th typhoon of the year, has weakened to a moderate typhoon, but its gale-force wind radius still extends 320 kilometers, indicating a vast circulation system. According to the latest observation from the Central Weather Administration on August 3, White Dolphin continues moving northwest-westward and is expected to reach the waters south of Japan's Ryukyu Islands around August 8. The most significant impact on Taiwan will occur over the Father's Day weekend (August 8–9), with northern mountainous areas under alert for localized torrential rains, and northern regions and central mountainous areas also facing heavy downpours. Although no sea or land typhoon warnings have been issued yet, a sea warning may be issued as early as the afternoon of August 7 due to the large wind radius. This article summarizes the latest updates on White Dolphin, including storm impact probabilities by county, timing of wind, rain, and long-period swells, work and school suspension criteria, and travel implications for Japan.

Latest Status and Forecast Track of Typhoon White Dolphin

As of 8:00 a.m. on August 3, the Central Weather Administration reported that the center of Typhoon White Dolphin was located about 2,700 kilometers east of Taipei, moving northwest-westward at 25 km/h. The central pressure is 945 hPa, with maximum sustained winds near the center at 43 m/s and gusts up to 53 m/s. The average radius of 7-level gale-force winds is 320 km, and the 10-level gale-force wind radius is 160 km.

The administration noted that although White Dolphin has weakened to a moderate typhoon, its structure remains robust. Until Friday, it will continue moving northwest-west to westward, approaching the Ryukyu Islands.

Lin Bingyu, a forecaster at the Central Weather Administration, stated during the morning weather briefing on August 3 that White Dolphin will reach the waters south of the Ryukyus around August 8, after which its path could vary significantly, with two main possibilities:

1. Continuing westward: Passing near the north of Taiwan, bringing more noticeable wind and rain impacts from its outer circulation. 2. Gradually turning northward: If the Pacific high pressure weakens, the typhoon may slow down and shift northward, resulting in relatively less impact on Taiwan.

Meteorologist Wu Derong, citing the European ensemble model, indicated that over the next 10 days, the probability of White Dolphin’s storm area affecting southern waters of the East China Sea is about 50%, the highest. The chance for northern Taiwan’s sea areas is about 40%, and for northern land areas about 20%. The sea area probability has slightly decreased from the previous day. He also warned that simulation paths beyond five days show increasing dispersion and uncertainty.

Why We Can’t Be Complacent Despite White Dolphin Weakening

At its peak on July 31, White Dolphin had maximum sustained winds of 60 m/s. The Central Weather Administration downgraded it from a severe typhoon to a moderate typhoon on the afternoon of August 2. However, the 7-level gale-force wind radius expanded from 300 km to 320 km, meaning the circulation has actually grown larger.

Former Central Weather Bureau Director Cheng Mingdian explained that White Dolphin is moving at higher latitudes where ocean heat content is insufficient, causing the storm’s circulation to expand while its intensity decreases. In practical terms, although the core winds have weakened, the areas affected by strong winds, high waves, and outer rainbands have become broader.

Storm Impact Probability by County in Taiwan

The Central Weather Administration released the latest "120-hour typhoon storm impact probability" at 8:00 a.m. on August 3. Northern Taiwan is most at risk, with five counties—Keelung, Taipei, New Taipei, Yilan, and Taoyuan—exceeding 30%.

- Northern: Keelung City 34% - Northern: Taipei City 32% - Northern: New Taipei City 31% - Northern: Yilan County, Taoyuan City 30% - Outlying Islands: Lienchiang County 28% - Hsinchu-Miaoli: Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City 27% - Hsinchu-Miaoli: Miaoli County 24%

Other counties have lower probabilities. The full list should be verified with the latest announcements from the Central Weather Administration. Typhoon updates are issued every three hours, and probabilities will adjust accordingly.

Weather Impact Timeline for Taiwan

Prior to the typhoon’s approach, weather will be clear and hot across Taiwan. On August 3, the administration issued a high-temperature advisory: Taipei, New Taipei, and Taoyuan are under orange alerts, with temperatures possibly reaching 36°C consecutively. Hsinchu County, Changhua, Yunlin, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Hualien are under yellow alerts. Over the next two days, most areas will be sunny and hot, with maximum temperatures possibly reaching 38°C island-wide.

According to the one-week forecast:

- August 4–6: Taiwan lies west of a low-pressure zone, with winds shifting to northeasterly to northerly. Isolated brief showers are expected along the northern coast and mountainous areas of greater Taipei. Elsewhere, skies will be partly cloudy to clear, with localized afternoon thunderstorms, especially in mountainous areas where heavy rain is possible. Scattered showers may also occur in central and southern regions from early to mid-morning on the 6th. - August 7: Outer cloud bands approach, bringing isolated brief showers to northern areas and scattered showers to central and southern regions. A sea typhoon warning may be issued as early as the afternoon. - August 8–9: Peak impact period from the typhoon and its outer circulation. Northern areas and central mountainous regions will experience showers, with localized heavy rain or torrential rain in northern mountainous areas. Other mountainous areas, northeastern and southern regions may see isolated brief showers. - August 10–12: As the typhoon moves away, winds shift to southwesterly, with lingering moisture. Southern areas will see showers or thunderstorms, with localized heavy rain possible. Central areas may experience isolated brief showers or thunderstorms.

Long-period swells will gradually expand. From August 4, long swells are possible along the northern coast of Keelung, eastern coastal areas (including Lanyu and Green Island), and the Hengchun Peninsula. Matsu coastal areas join on August 6, and central-northern coastal areas and Penghu may see swells from August 8. Long swells can occur even without rain or strong winds on land, so beachgoers, port visitors, and those near rocky shores should avoid coastal areas.

Foehn winds are expected in Yilan on August 6–7, shifting to the Hualien-Taitung region on August 8, with localized high temperatures to monitor.

Do Typhoons Favor Father’s Day? 77-Year Data Reveals Key Pattern

Meteorologist Lin De’en from "Mr. Lin’s Weather Station" analyzed 77 years of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea and found that Father’s Day, not Mid-Autumn Festival, is the holiday most frequently affected by typhoons impacting Taiwan.

Lin explained that during this period, the Pacific high pressure extends westward, guiding typhoons toward Taiwan via easterly or southwesterly flows on its southern flank.

From 1949 to 2025, 15 typhoons have affected or approached Taiwan around August 8, with 7 occurring in the past 32 years. Three caused severe damage: Soudelor (2015), Morakot (2009), and Doug (1994).

Will There Be a Typhoon Holiday? Work and School Suspension Criteria Explained

According to Article 4 of the "Natural Disaster Work and School Suspension Guidelines":

- Wind criteria: Average wind force of 7 or higher, or gusts of 10 or higher, expected within 4 hours in areas within the typhoon’s gale radius. - Rain criteria: 24-hour accumulated rainfall reaching thresholds set by local authorities, with actual or potential disaster conditions.

Rain thresholds are generally 200 mm for mountainous areas and 350 mm for flatlands (e.g., Taoyuan, Hsinchu County, Miaoli, Taichung). Keelung, Taipei, New Taipei, and Hsinchu City use 350 mm regardless of terrain. Given the rain concentration in northern mountainous areas, this difference is notable.

Decisions are made by local authorities based on these standards, with final announcements from local governments and the Executive Yuan’s Personnel Administration Bureau.

Travel Alert: Flight and Transport Impacts in Okinawa and Amami

Japan Meteorological Agency data on August 3 shows the storm impact probability highest at 100% for the Ogasawara Islands, followed by 92% for Daito Island, 88% for Amami, and 85% for Okinawa Island.

Timeline: The typhoon will approach Ogasawara around August 4, Daito Island on August 6, and Okinawa Island and Amami Islands around August 7. JMA and Japan Weather Association warn of potential warning-level heavy rain and strong winds, disrupting transportation.

Travelers to Okinawa, Ishigaki, and Amami should treat August 6–8 as high-risk for transport disruptions. Flights between Taiwan and Okinawa/Ishigaki, as well as local monorails, buses, and ferries, may be delayed or canceled. Confirm airline rebooking/refund policies and monitor JMA, airport, and local transport announcements.

For mainland Japan, the Japan Weather Association warns that moist air from the typhoon may flow into Pacific-side regions of eastern and western Japan after August 5, increasing cloud cover and bringing rain to some areas.

Frequently Asked Questions About Typhoon White Dolphin (2026)

Will a sea typhoon warning be issued?

No sea or land warnings have been issued yet. Forecaster Lin Bingyu said a sea warning may be issued as early as August 7 afternoon if White Dolphin continues westward with a large wind radius. Even if it turns northward, a late turn without shrinking wind radius could still trigger a sea warning.

Will Tropical Depression TD15 become Typhoon Whale?

No. Meteorologist Lin De’en stated TD15, moving north-northwest at 10 km/h, weakened rapidly due to terrain and dissipated before developing into a typhoon. It did not become the 14th typhoon, Whale.

Will White Dolphin make landfall in Taiwan?

Current forecasts show a low probability of White Dolphin’s center making landfall in Taiwan. The main track remains toward the Ryukyus and southern East China Sea.