Former Australian PM Warns: 2028 Is the Critical Moment for a Taiwan Strait Conflict, Only 'This Group' Can Deter Xi Jinping

Kevin Rudd, current Global President of the U.S.-based think tank Asia Society and former Prime Minister of Australia, recently gave an exclusive interview to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's (ABC) political program in London, where he criticized the rise of far-right parties in Australia and addressed the Taiwan Strait issue, a topic he has long monitored.

Rudd reiterated his widely discussed '2028 Taiwan Strait crisis theory,' highlighting three key events expected between 2027 and 2028.

October 2027: Xi Jinping is almost certain to be reappointed as General Secretary at the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

January 2028: Taiwan will hold its next presidential election. If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates a de facto pro-independence platform, wins again, Xi Jinping may use this as a trigger for military action.

High-level U.S.-China interactions: During a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Xi Jinping used unusually direct language, warning that the Taiwan issue is an 'extremely dangerous topic that could lead to collision and conflict.' Trump reportedly responded, 'Taiwan is very far from the United States,' raising questions about the current U.S. stance.

As a fluent Mandarin speaker, Rudd also highlighted China's rapid naval expansion, stressing that Australia's participation in the AUKUS pact and acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is a necessary choice for safeguarding sovereignty. According to Rudd, the People's Liberation Army Navy currently operates between 60 and 75 submarines, including 15 to 20 nuclear-powered vessels, as well as several ballistic missile submarines capable of nuclear strikes. In terms of underwater fleet size, China already rivals the U.S. Pacific submarine force.

Additionally, China's surface combatant fleet totals around 370 ships, surpassing the U.S. Navy's active fleet of 290 combat vessels.

When asked whether Xi Jinping would actually launch an attack on Taiwan in 2028, Rudd did not give a direct answer. However, he emphasized that while political rhetoric may shift with elections, the real factor ensuring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is the immediate deployment capability of the U.S. military—particularly the forces led by Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. 'It is this group of service members, who remain on the front lines every day, maintaining the U.S. military’s actual deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. This is the fundamental force that truly prevents conflict,' he stated.