Beijing Watch: Analysis of Japan's 2026 Defense White Paper — Defining China as the 'Greatest Strategic Challenge,' Shifting from Crisis Prevention to 20-Year Long-Term Competition?

On April 4, the Japanese government released its '2026 Defense White Paper,' once again positioning China as the 'greatest strategic challenge' (the greatest strategic challenge), continuing the same security assessment Japan has upheld for several years since the December 2022 revision of its National Security Strategy. At first glance, this may appear to be a mere continuation of Japan's recent policy stance. However, the truly significant aspect is not the increasingly harsh rhetoric, but another signal conveyed by the white paper — Japan’s perception of China is shifting from a 'threat to be managed' to a 'strategic rival with whom long-term competition is inevitable.' The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Japan's new Defense White Paper deliberately exaggerates regional tensions, promotes the so-called 'China threat,' and criticizes China's normal defense development and military activities. China has already lodged a formal protest with Japan. Following China's implementation of new 'Exit and Entry Management Regulations,' Japan has been classified by China as a 'high-risk country,' sparking public attention regarding Chinese tourism to Japan. In October 2021, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia conducted a Maritime Partnership Exercise in the Indo-Pacific region. (Screenshot from the 7th Fleet official website) From 'China Threat Theory' to 'China Competition Theory' This year’s white paper continues to express concern over China’s rapid military expansion, military activities in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait, and military cooperation between China and Russia. It also, for the first time, devotes significantly more space to discussing the increasingly close security interactions among China, Russia, and North Korea. Compared to previous years, the most significant change in the white paper is not the increase in criticism, but Japan’s effort to place China within a broader strategic framework. Notably, this year’s white paper uses animation, manga, and lifestyle-oriented design to explain defense policies to younger generations, aiming to reduce public distance from military issues. While this may seem like a mere update in communication strategy, it reflects a deeper policy goal: transforming national defense into a national project in which all citizens participate. Due to the long-standing influence of Japan’s pacifist constitution, while the Self-Defense Forces enjoy high public trust, political discourse has traditionally avoided overt militaristic language. In the past, Japan’s security policy primarily focused on 'homeland defense' and the 'U.S.-Japan alliance.' Today, however, it is gradually shifting toward broader competition across domains such as Indo-Pacific security, supply chain resilience, defense industry, artificial intelligence, drones, and economic security. In response, some Chinese military scholars on social media have stated, 'Japan’s new Defense White Paper is not merely a security assessment, but deliberately exaggerates China’s military development to justify its recent sharp increases in defense spending, acquisition of counterstrike capability, and promotion of defense industry policies.' Chinese military aircraft frequently engage in close encounters with foreign aircraft. The image shows a Chinese military exercise near the Taiwan Strait. (Photo source: Xinhua News Agency) Taiwan Remains Central; Northeast Asian Dynamics of China, North Korea, and Russia Are Key Japan’s annual Defense White Paper has consistently emphasized the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and this year continues to stress that the Taiwan Strait situation is directly linked to Japan’s security. However, compared to previous years’ focus on Taiwan, this year’s white paper devotes greater attention to the overall Indo-Pacific security environment. Issues such as the East China Sea, South China Sea, the First Island Chain, unmanned operations, missile defense, economic security, and the defense industry are all integrated into a single security framework. This indicates that Japan’s strategic thinking is shifting from 'how Japan should respond if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait' to 'how Japan can sustain comprehensive competition with China without war.' The Chinese Ministry of National Defense immediately criticized the document as 'filled with false narratives,' accusing Japan of using the 'China threat' narrative to justify its own military expansion and demanding that Japan cease interfering in China’s internal affairs. Such exchanges have become a nearly fixed pattern in recent years. Sino-Russian military cooperation is another major risk highlighted in the white paper. It details joint bomber patrols by both countries (including flights near Shikoku in December 2025 and June 2026), the expanding range of joint naval exercises into the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Western Pacific, and the East China Sea, as well as live-fire drills within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. These actions are characterized as 'demonstrative activities against our country,' indicating a deepening strategic partnership. North Korea’s cooperation with Russia, including supplying weapons and ammunition and dispatching troops, is also seen as potentially strengthening its military capabilities in the medium to long term. Japan’s Real Change Is in the 'Time Horizon' The 2022 National Security Strategy marked the beginning of institutional reform. From 2023 to 2025, Japan gradually increased its defense budget, acquired counterstrike capabilities, and advanced defense industry reforms. The 2026 white paper further attempts to build societal consensus, aiming to establish security policy as a long-term national project. What truly matters is not whether Japan once again labeled China as the 'greatest strategic challenge' this year — that judgment has already become official consensus. More importantly, Japan is no longer viewing China through a three- or five-year crisis management lens, but is beginning to plan its security policy through a ten- to twenty-year national competition perspective. For Tokyo, China is no longer merely a military threat to be guarded against, but a long-term strategic variable affecting Japan’s national development trajectory.