Jing Yuan's Perspective: The 'Human' Crisis Under 'Unmanned' Advantage

The phrase 'war is a catalyst for technological progress' is concretely demonstrated by the Russia-Ukraine war. From first-person attack drones, long-range attack drones, unmanned boats, battlefield software, and electronic warfare, Ukraine has shown active and vibrant innovation capabilities. Ukraine, with its low-cost, rapidly iterated drones, has extended its reconnaissance and strike range from the domestic battlefield to Russian territory, causing delays in Russia's war progress, making it a classic example of 'asymmetric warfare.' However, while unmanned equipment has given Ukraine significant tactical advantages, it has not yet translated into overall advantages sufficient to reverse the war's direction. The current war situation remains a stalemate with 'Russia in the lead and Ukraine holding firm.' Reviewing the reasons, bottlenecks in Western aid and pressure from manpower shortages have made Ukraine increasingly passive in the face of Russia's continuous offensive. This contrast shows that unmanned systems can change the nature of warfare but ultimately cannot become a decisive factor in changing the course of the war. Recently, Ukraine has faced unfavorable situations in its defense high-level and grassroots personnel issues. First, in July of this year, Mykhailo Fedorov, who had served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation and had long promoted drone and military technology reforms, resigned as Defense Minister after about half a year in office. Adjusting the defense leadership during wartime does not necessarily indicate military disorder, but if the high-level lacks stability and mutual trust, Ukraine's excellent drone units may still be affected by organizational conflicts and discontinuous command. Second, grassroots problems are more challenging. Ukrainian soldiers have long endured the pressure of continuous casualties, inability to rotate, and unclear service periods. At the beginning of this year, then-Defense Minister Fedorov publicly stated in parliament that about 200,000 soldiers were in a state of desertion, and another approximately two million were involved in evading mobilization. Compared to Russia, Russia has a relative structural advantage in human resources. Russia's population and mobilization base are much larger than Ukraine's. Even if Russian military casualties are higher, Ukraine, with its smaller population and manpower base, suffers more severe impacts from each batch of casualties, deserters, and unaccounted personnel on the front lines. In the military theory of the People's Liberation Army, the concept of 'unmanned platforms, manned systems' is used to summarize intelligent warfare, believing that unmanned equipment only moves people from frontline platforms to rear control, intelligence, maintenance, and command positions, and that human decision-making functions cannot be replaced. Therefore, unmanned warfare does not mean that combat personnel can be significantly reduced, but only that some are moved to non-combat and professional positions. The experience of Ukraine further tells us that the so-called 'manned' does not only include operators and commanders with control and maintenance capabilities, but also soldiers who are willing to serve, believe in the command, and can stay in the military for a long time. The Taiwanese military is actively developing drones, unmanned boats, and asymmetric forces, which is absolutely the right direction and should be strongly supported. However, the 'human' problem may already exist before a conflict occurs between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. First, according to official data, the overall manning ratio of the Taiwanese military has decreased from 88.57% in 2020 to 78.6% in 2024, and the manning ratio of some first-line combat units is still below 80%. In addition, Taiwan's public opinion surveys on defense willingness need to be carefully understood. When the question is 'Are you willing to defend Taiwan?' more than 60% of respondents say yes. However, when the question changes to whether they are willing to join the military and participate in combat, the proportion drops to about 10%. The different question formats cannot be directly compared, but they are enough to remind us that there may be a gap between abstract support for defending the homeland and the actual acceptance of mobilization, organization, long-term service, and the risk of casualties. If the manning ratio of major combat units is already insufficient in peacetime, and then, as in Ukraine, there are situations in wartime such as incomplete reporting of reserve personnel, personnel casualties, long-term fatigue, or desertion, the most severe scenario would be 'having machines but no people,' that is, there is no shortage of drones, but there is a lack of sufficient operators, maintenance, and command personnel. Or, drones complete the task of eliminating targets, but there are not enough troops to control the position. Under the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war, Taiwanese society is currently permeated with a near-superstitious enthusiasm for 'drones and new technologies.' Currently, social attention and strategic discussions are highly concentrated on unmanned systems, and the clamor for high-tech weapons is far greater than the substantive debate on human resources and force structure. Taiwan's defense discussions are permeated with a self-serving atmosphere of 'solving 'human' problems with 'unmanned.' In asymmetric confrontation, it is understandable that the weaker side hopes for a certain key weapon or tactical change to reverse the situation. However, the evolution of the war has proven that there is no quick 'game-changing' weapon on the battlefield, and ultimately, it still returns to the cruel comparison of basic factors such as the scale of troops, industrial production capacity, and logistical resources. Ukraine's advantages in unmanned systems have not been able to change the battlefield situation. Although the human problem is not the only problem, it is undoubtedly a very critical factor. This should be a highly cautionary lesson for Taiwan's security.