Typhoon Baito May Trigger Marine Warning Today! Updated Path Predicts 'Three Consecutive Days of Heavy Rain' – Taiwan Impact and Weekend Weather Revealed

Meteorological expert Wu Derong stated that Typhoon Baito, currently a minor typhoon, is moving westward and gradually weakening. On the 7th, it will pass through waters near the Ryukyu Islands. The latest European model simulations show an increased probability of a westward track, lowering the chance that Baito will completely bypass Taiwan. There is now a possibility that the storm’s wind field may graze the marine warning zone, prompting the Central Weather Administration to potentially issue a marine typhoon warning as early as this afternoon, with a land warning not ruled out for tomorrow. Due to the influence of its outer circulation, northern Taiwan and central-southern regions must remain vigilant for the risk of intense rainfall from tomorrow (8th) through early October 10th.

Latest Path of Typhoon Baito – Landfall Timing and Forecast Track Revealed

Latest tracks of Typhoons Baito and Changho. (Image: Central Weather Administration)

According to the latest observational data from the Central Weather Administration, at 2:00 PM on the 7th, Typhoon Baito was centered at 26.9 degrees north latitude and 130.4 degrees east longitude, moving northwest-west at 24 km/h.

Wu Derong, adjunct associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Central University, analyzed in his column 'Leak the Heavenly Mechanism' that after passing near the Ryukyu Islands today, Baito will enter the southern East China Sea tomorrow, where its forward speed will begin to slow, increasing track uncertainty. It is expected to make landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, in the early hours of October 10th.

The latest ensemble simulations from the European (ECMWF) model show a decreasing likelihood of Baito turning northward after entering the East China Sea. Instead, paths showing a westward approach toward China before gradually turning are significantly increasing. As a result, the probability of the storm completely missing the marine warning zone has decreased, and the public is advised to closely monitor updates from the Central Weather Administration.

As for another typhoon, Changho, it is expected to continue moving northwest toward northern Japan, posing no direct impact on Taiwan.

Weather Outlook for the Next Week – Timeline of Heavy Rain and Extreme Heat

Influenced by the outer circulation of the typhoon and subsequent southwest winds, Taiwan’s weather will undergo significant changes in the coming days. Wu Derong summarized the rainfall and temperature timeline as follows:

Today (7th) Outer circulation approaches, bringing scattered brief showers to northern and central-southern Taiwan. Weather remains hot.

Tomorrow to Early October 10th (8th–10th) Closest approach to Taiwan! Northern and central-southern regions face sequential risks of intense rainfall. Strong gusts are expected island-wide, with temperatures slightly cooling.

Eastern regions, affected by 'foehn descent,' must remain on high alert for extreme heat!

October 10th–12th After landfall and departure, Taiwan will shift to southwest winds.

• Windward side (southwestern areas): Scattered showers or thunderstorms with potential for heavier rainfall. • Other areas: Sunny and hot, with northern and southeastern regions needing caution against extreme heat. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms in central and northern regions.

October 13th–14th Southwest winds weaken, but moisture remains abundant.

• Early morning: Isolated rainfall in southwestern areas. • Afternoon: Due to atmospheric instability, strong convective development is possible in western Taiwan.

The Central Weather Administration warns that these days mark the closest approach of the typhoon to Taiwan. The public is urged to carry rain gear when going out and remain vigilant against strong winds and extreme heat.