Will Lu Hsiu-yen have a slim chance against Lai Ching-te in 2028? Wu Tzu-chia reveals 2 fatal flaws: 'She doesn't look like a presidential candidate'

President Lai Ching-te is expected to seek re-election in 2028, with this year's local elections seen as a midterm test and a prelude to the presidential race. Recently, former President Tsai Ing-wen took over as head of the DPP's Taitung County campaign headquarters; Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an and Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yen have also clashed with the central government over the Chung Lien Oils case—factors that make Lai's re-election path unpredictable.

On the program 'After Work with Han,' Wu Tzu-chia, chairman of Formosa Magazine, analyzed that Lai Ching-te still holds a higher chance of winning re-election. Wu speculates that although Tsai Ing-wen may consider running, she ultimately won't, as 'no one in the party dares to challenge Lai.' He emphasized that anyone who crosses Lai 'will pay with their life.' Therefore, regardless of whether the DPP retains power in Kaohsiung and Tainan in the year-end elections, no one within the party will challenge Lai.

Wu further stated that if Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yen runs against Lai Ching-te, 'Lu will have a harder time,' and Lai's chances remain higher. Moreover, KMT Chairperson Chang Li-wen is 'Lai Ching-te's greatest benefactor' because the KMT is deeply divided. For example, when Chiang Wan-an's domestic popularity rose, the DPP launched a 'whole party against one person' attack, yet no KMT member defended him. After Chiang proposed a vote of no confidence, no one in the party supported him.

Wu emphasized that any politician aiming for the next presidency must accomplish two things in this election: first, donate funds to support candidates; second, organize campaign teams to assist party colleagues. Yet Chiang Wan-an has not crossed the Zhuoshui River southward, and Lu Hsiu-yen has not campaigned in the north.

The 2028 presidential race will center on Taiwan's identity and cross-strait relations. Chang Li-wen's stance on cross-strait issues will likely hurt the KMT's campaign, but as a local leader, Lu Hsiu-yen lacks a more developed narrative on national identity than Chang. Wu stressed, 'I don’t see any sign from the KMT that they’re serious about running in 2028.'

More exclusive reports from Storm Media: · Blue Camp 2028 Candidates Reshuffled? Not Just Lu Hsiu-yen and Han Kuo-yu—Scholars Name 'This Big Figure': Should Run If 3 Conditions Are Met · Zhen Media Poll: Not Lu Hsiu-yen! The Most Popular 2028 Presidential Candidate Among Blue-White Alliance Is This Person—'That Man' Also Enters the Ranking · Lai Ching-te's Biggest Re-election Threat Isn't Lu Hsiu-yen? Wu Tzu-chia Names a KMT Contender: 'Someone Acceptable to Both China and the U.S.'