After Work International》Want to Buy Global Tech Stocks? Check Taiwan's Exports First! Expert Reveals '3 Key Events' Proving Why This Data Is the Leading Indicator of Boom and Bust

Taiwan's stock market has been volatile, with the market mood changing as unpredictably as 'a stepmother's daily whims.' Many investors once believed they could retire on stock gains, only to reconsider withdrawing their resignation letters after just a few trading days. Facing such market turbulence, Rachel Chen, founder of M Square Finance, emphasized on the 'After Work International' program that people should continue working diligently and maintain stable cash flow. However, she stressed that one critical metric every investor should track regularly is 'Taiwan's export data'—a key barometer for the health of the global technology sector.

Chen noted that M Square Finance remains cautiously optimistic about Taiwan's stock market outlook, primarily because Taiwan's economic growth continues to be revised upward, driven by the upstream supply chain fueled by AI. She explained that her team has consistently raised its GDP growth estimates for Taiwan, while the market's projected P/E ratio remains around 20x—still within a healthy range.

Chen recalled the early days of the pandemic, when global consumption froze overnight and the market widely feared a collapse in the electronics industry. Yet, Taiwan's export figures for April and May suddenly surged, signaling that demand for remote work equipment, servers, and electronics had not disappeared—in fact, it was thriving due to the pandemic.

Rachel Chen, founder of M Square Finance, pointed out that before NVIDIA's stock began its major rally, Taiwan's export data for July and August already showed a strong upward trend, indicating a shift in upstream supply chain momentum. (Central News Agency)

A second similar signal emerged in 2023, just before NVIDIA's massive stock surge. Chen stated that prior to NVIDIA's price explosion, Taiwan's July and August export data revealed a remarkably strong performance, signaling a turnaround in the upstream supply chain. By the time U.S. tech stocks officially took off, Taiwan's exports had already 'leaked the plot.'

The third instance occurred recently during the U.S.-Iran tensions. When the market was gripped by war-related pessimism, Taiwan's March export data jumped to a high of approximately USD 80 billion. Subsequently, the Taiwan stock market began to strengthen, and global tech stocks rebounded in tandem. Chen emphasized that whether investing in Taiwan stocks or trading global tech equities, investors should first monitor changes in Taiwan's export data.

Tainan Science Park, Southern Taiwan Science Park, TSMC. (Photo by Yen Lin-Yu)

Why Does Taiwan's Export Data Leak First?

The answer lies in Taiwan's position at the upstream of the global AI and electronics supply chain. Whether the final product is AI servers, GPUs, smartphones, PCs, or data center equipment, many critical chips, components, advanced processes, and server supply chains originate with production and shipment in Taiwan. When AI demand in the U.S. end market is poised to take off, orders flow down the supply chain—not waiting for Microsoft or Google to report earnings—but first reaching wafer, packaging, server, and component suppliers, and ultimately reflecting in Taiwan's export figures. This makes Taiwan a unique 'upstream radar station' for observing global tech industry trends.

Export data is more timely than GDP. Chen warned on the show: 'If you're trading Taiwan stocks, you must check Taiwan's export data.' As Taiwan sits at the core of the global electronics and semiconductor supply chain, export data acts like an ECG for the entire tech industry. Whether orders are returning or electronic demand is suddenly surging is often reflected in exports well before corporate earnings reports.

So, the next time Taiwan's stock market experiences a V-shaped recovery, instead of immediately asking, 'Is this institutional manipulation?' a more important question is: Has Taiwan's export data—the leading indicator for the global tech industry—actually turned?

Rachel Chen (right), founder of M Square Finance, appeared on Feng Media's 'After Work International' program hosted by Lu Yi-Chen (left) on the 5th. (Photo by Ko Cheng-Hui)

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