Gong Sun-ce Column: The Iran War – Face, Substance, and Survival

A piece of insider reporting claims that Trump once privately told senior aides he would be willing to end the Iran war without a nuclear deal, provided Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. This is nearly unimaginable for the commonly perceived 'face-obsessed Trump.' Thinking it through, if this report is true, Trump must have already figured out how to declare victory to the American people.

But regardless, this would amount to admitting that the United States 'lost' the Iran war. For Trump, such a loss of face could only be justified by one reason: the risk of becoming a lame-duck president if his party loses the majority in both houses during the midterm elections. In other words, substance ultimately matters more than face.

Another claim is that the U.S. military's ammunition stockpiles have already been 'emptied.' This should not be simplified to 'the U.S. military cannot win the Iran war.' Rather, it means that without using nuclear weapons and without launching a ground war, while simultaneously maintaining military readiness against China, Russia (and even North Korea), the U.S. military's ammunition reserves are already insufficient to defend its allies' bases in the Middle East.

Many people fail to understand why the U.S. military, which once crushed Iraq and easily intervened in Venezuela earlier this year, has never launched a ground invasion into Iran.

That is no longer a matter of face or substance—it is a matter of life and death.

During the reign of Emperor Wu of Han, General Li Guangli led a large army beyond the frontier to attack the Xiongnu. Li Ling, a skilled and favored commander, was only assigned logistical duties. When Li Ling requested a frontline command, Emperor Wu replied, 'There are no cavalry units available for you this time.' In truth, the real reason was that the emperor did not want Li Ling to steal Li Guangli’s glory—Li Guangli was the brother of Emperor Wu’s beloved concubine, Lady Li, and the emperor wished to protect his brother-in-law’s achievements. Li Ling responded, 'That’s fine,' and was permitted to lead 8,000 elite crossbowmen (infantry) to attack the Xiongnu royal court (near present-day Ulaanbaatar).

Li Guangli led 30,000 cavalry, following the same long-range expedition route as Huo Qubing, advancing through the Four Commanderies of Hexi into the Western Regions. Meanwhile, Li Ling’s 8,000 infantry were assigned a diversionary role to draw enemy attention. Unexpectedly, Li Ling proved too capable. His infantry advanced relentlessly over a thousand li (approximately 400 kilometers) into the desert, approaching the Xiongnu royal court, separated only by one mountain ridge.

Chidi Hou Chanyu judged this force to be the main Han army and immediately mobilized the entire Xiongnu forces—about 80,000 cavalry and infantry—to surround Li Ling’s troops within half a day.

Li Ling attempted to break through the encirclement, fighting while retreating, until his quivers were empty, and his swords were blunted from repeated use. With no means to continue fighting, he was forced to surrender—only about 100 li (roughly 40 kilometers) from the Han border fortress of Shoujiangcheng.

Li Ling chose not to die honorably. His duty to the state was fulfilled; with arrows exhausted and blades dulled, he could no longer kill the enemy. Before him lay only the choice between life and death.

If Trump were to order a ground invasion of Iran, the U.S. military might not face Li Ling’s exact predicament, but fighting in Iran’s mountainous terrain would be far more difficult than in Iraq’s flat deserts. American troops would face severe casualties—returning once again to the issue of substance. The impact on the midterm elections would undoubtedly be even greater.

A strategic expert from a U.S. think tank warns: 'Don’t forget, it will take us several years to replenish our stockpiles.' That is a strategic consideration. But from an electoral standpoint, what the Trump administration most urgently needs to replenish is not ammunition—it is the American people’s wallets and refrigerators. In the end, it remains a matter of substance.

*The author is a columnist.