Juwun Poll: Just One Percentage Point Difference! Lai Jui-long Fails to Fully Inherit Chen Chi-mai's Popularity; Ke Chien-fu Closes Gap with Support from Two Key Voter Groups

With only 110 days remaining until the 2026 nine-in-one elections, Juwun News released today (10th) its latest public opinion poll on the Kaohsiung mayoral race. The results show that Lai Jui-long, nominated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has 47.78% support, while Ke Chien-fu, nominated by the Kuomintang (KMT), stands at 46.14%—a narrow lead of 1.64 percentage points, within the margin of error. Cross-analysis reveals that both candidates lead in different age groups and electoral districts. Despite Kaohsiung's political landscape favoring the green camp, Ke remains competitive by securing strong support from centrist voters and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) supporters.

The end-of-year mayoral election follows the completion of incumbent Mayor Chen Chi-mai's two terms. The DPP's internal primary was won by three-term legislator Lai Jui-long, who will now face KMT proportional representative Ke Chien-fu. According to Juwun News' latest poll, Lai leads with 47.78% support compared to Ke's 46.14%. However, 4.24% of voters remain undecided, and 1.84% support neither candidate or will not vote.

Notably, this tight race occurs in a city with a clear green-leaning party alignment. The poll shows that 41.43% of Kaohsiung residents identify with the DPP, compared to 25.19% for the KMT—a 16.24-point gap. Yet, in the mayoral race, Lai's lead is only 1.64 points. This discrepancy stems from two key factors: centrist voters and blue-white cooperation.

First, among the 23.14% of voters who identify as neutral or non-partisan, Ke leads Lai 59.79% to 24.58%, a 35.21-point advantage. Second, Ke benefits from blue-white integration: 95.02% of TPP supporters back her, and 82.60% of those who voted for Ko Wen-je in 2024 now support Ke, contributing a net gain of 9.85 percentage points. Ke's ability to remain competitive in a green-leaning city hinges on these two voter blocs.

By age group, Lai leads among 20–29-year-olds (52.72% vs. 36.38%, +16.34 points) and 30–39-year-olds (+6.97 points). Ke narrowly leads among 40–49-year-olds (45.31% vs. 43.66%). The 50–59 age group is nearly tied (Ke 48.33%, Lai 48.52%, difference of 0.19 points). Among voters aged 60 and above, Ke leads 50.19% to 46.49% (+3.70 points).

When broken down by gender, a striking reversal emerges: among voters aged 60+, Lai wins 57.76% of women, while Ke wins 56.11% of men—a 34.16-point gender gap. Similarly, among 20–29-year-old women, Lai leads by 28.71 points.

By the 11 councilor electoral districts, Ke leads most significantly in District 9 (Fengshan), with 52.07% vs. 39.05% (+13.02 points, n=210, margin of error ±12.79), the only statistically significant lead. Other leads are within error margins: District 11 (Daliao, Lin Yuan) 48.15% vs. 42.72% (+5.43), District 7 (Sinsing) 47.96% vs. 45.77% (+2.19), District 3 (Gangshan, Qiaotou, etc.) 48.38% vs. 47.67% (+0.71).

Lai leads most strongly in District 2 (Lujhu, Hunei, etc.) with 58.35% vs. 35.69% (+22.66 points, n=60), but the small sample size results in a margin of error of ±23.86%, making this lead statistically insignificant. Other notable leads: District 6 (Gushan, Yancheng, Cijin) +7.36 points, District 5 (Renwu, Niaosong, etc.) +7.00, District 4 (Nanzih, Zuoying) +5.83—all within error margins.

Chen Chi-mai's mayoral approval rating stands at 63.32% (45.49% very satisfied, 17.83% satisfied), yet Lai's support is only 47.78%—a 15.54-point gap. This indicates Chen's policy achievements have not fully transferred to Lai. The gap lies precisely among those who are merely 'satisfied' (17.83%): only 29.82% support Lai, while 58.23% back Ke. In contrast, 92.39% of those 'very satisfied' with Chen support Lai.

President Lai Qing-de's approval is 48.62% (23.89% very satisfied, 24.73% satisfied), while disapproval is 51.38% (10.12% dissatisfied, 41.26% very dissatisfied). Among the 'very dissatisfied' (41.26%), 95.07% support Ke and only 0.74% support Lai. Among the 'dissatisfied' group (10.12%), Ke leads 55.89% to Lai's 22.38%, with 14.66% undecided—the highest undecided rate among all groups.

The survey was commissioned by Juwun News and conducted by Pearson Data, targeting internet users aged 20 and above in Kaohsiung from July 27 to August 1, 2026. It collected 1,608 valid responses, with a margin of error of ±2.40% at a 95% confidence level.