What's the Real Gap in Kaohsiung's Blue-Green Election Race? Lai Ching-te Exposes Fake Polls; Doctor Criticizes: 'Relying on China Again—Lai Jui-long Is the Weakest Ever'

With just over three months remaining until the 2026 county and city mayoral elections, campaign attacks between rival camps are increasingly going public. Regarding the closely watched Kaohsiung election, President Lai Ching-te, who also serves as DPP chairperson, stated during the party's mobile Central Standing Committee meeting in Kaohsiung on the 12th that claims suggesting 'Lai Jui-long leads his opponent by less than one percentage point' are entirely false.

In response, physician Shen Cheng-nan criticized on Facebook on the 13th, stating that Lai Ching-te does not understand polling and accusing him of fabricating claims about Chinese interference in Taiwan's elections. As president, spreading such rumors undermines Taiwan's democracy. He bluntly stated that Lai Jui-long is the weakest candidate for a six-metropolitan mayorship the DPP has fielded in 30 years.

Is the Polling Between Lai Jui-long and Ko Chih-en Tied? What Does Lai Ching-te Say?

On the 12th, the DPP held its mobile Central Standing Committee meeting at the Kaohsiung Exhibition Center. Lai Ching-te led all Central Standing Committee members in supporting Lai Jui-long. Lai Ching-te pointed out that recent media reports suggest the Chinese Communist Party decided during its 2026 Beidaihe meeting to support so-called 'pro-China patriotic forces' in Taiwan's year-end elections. Under this influence, Kaohsiung is facing significant pressure, and false polls claiming 'Lai Jui-long leads by less than 1%' and false narratives like 'Lai Jui-long cannot hold the line' have already emerged. He warned that more disinformation may follow and urged Kaohsiung party officials to unite and secure victory.

In response, Kuomintang (KMT) Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Ko Chih-en called on Lai Ching-te to pursue legal investigations if he possesses evidence. She criticized using insinuation in election campaigns and stated that labeling unfavorable polls as 'disinformation' and disliked candidates as 'pro-China' does not defend democracy.

Ko Chih-en (pictured) said that if Lai Ching-te has evidence of Chinese interference, he should initiate legal proceedings. (Photo credit: Hsu Ping-wen)

Is China Interfering in Kaohsiung's Election? Shen Cheng-nan's Perspective

Shen Cheng-nan stated that the so-called 'Beidaihe meeting' is a rumor fabricated by Lai Ching-te himself. He noted that the poll showing Lai Jui-long leading KMT mayoral candidate Ko Chih-en by less than one percentage point was commissioned by Ko in June 2026 from TVBS. Lai Ching-te, for the sake of party interests, labeling it as a 'fake poll' exemplifies the 'party-government-media-internet quartet' green monster's malicious behavior, which the mass recall movement has already proven will backfire.

He cited The Economist's special report on 'Taiwan's democracy being hijacked,' which clearly identifies Lai Ching-te as the chief culprit behind the deep societal rift caused by the mass recall movement.

Shen further cited multiple media surveys showing that the gap between the blue and green mayoral candidates in Kaohsiung is narrow, with leads alternating. Are all of these fake polls too? In fact, some of these surveys were the most accurate in predicting the 2022 Kaohsiung mayoral race. He explained that many KMT supporters in Kaohsiung avoid taking polling calls or give false answers, leading to institutional bias, or that online sampling methods could result in Lai Jui-long leading by 20 to 30 percentage points. Lai Ching-te, who doesn't even understand how to read polls, how can he govern the country? He criticized that for the past decade, the DPP has relied solely on 'making baseless claims during elections and mismanaging governance.'

In conclusion, he stated, 'Why has Lai Jui-long been caught up by Ko Chih-en? Because the DPP's talent pool in Kaohsiung has deteriorated over generations. Lai Jui-long is indeed the weakest in 30 years—the proverbial 'incapable A Dou!'

Ko Chih-en and Lai Jui-long's Fierce Battle in Kaohsiung: Reviewing the TVBS June Poll

On June 4, 2026, a TVBS poll on the Kaohsiung mayoral race showed Lai Jui-long leading with 40.3% support, narrowly ahead of Ko Chih-en (39.7%) by 0.6 percentage points. Another 19.9% of voters had not yet decided their preferred candidate.

The survey was conducted by the TVBS Public Opinion Research Center using a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system with random digit dialing (RDD) of landline numbers. The survey period was from the evening of May 27 to June 2, 2025, and the afternoon of May 30. A total of 1,207 valid interviews were completed with Kaohsiung residents aged 20 or older.

At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error was within ±2.8 percentage points. Raw data was weighted by gender, age, region, and education level according to Kaohsiung's population structure as of the end of 2024 from the Ministry of the Interior.