Taiwan's stock market underwent intense volatility in July, with ETFs experiencing sharp swings. Financial expert Juan Mu-Hua stated on the program 'Wealth Path Forward' that high-dividend ETFs averaged only a 10% decline with a 76% recovery rate, while semiconductor-type ETFs dropped 26.6% and recovered only about half. Shallow declines led to faster recoveries, with downside protection determining the pace of market repair. Juan analyzed 40 passive ETFs across three categories: 20 high-dividend, 13 market-cap-weighted, and 7 semiconductor-focused—representing the core holdings of most investors. High-dividend ETFs declined just 10.3% on average, far less than the TAIEX's 18% and TPEx's 28%. Their recovery rate reached 76.4%, surpassing the 40-ETF average. Market-cap ETFs fell 18.5% with a 66.2% recovery, while semiconductor ETFs saw the deepest drop at 26.6% and the lowest recovery at 49.8%. Thus, shallower declines correlated with higher recovery rates, making defense a key factor. The top six recovery leaders: 00918 led with 147.7% recovery by August 11, not only recovering all losses but hitting new highs. 00939 achieved 133%, 00907 reached 116%, 00921 had 96.7%, 00731 recorded 88.9%, and 00934 reached 83.5%. Among market-cap ETFs, 00921 led with 96.7%, followed by 00912 (70%), 00850 Yuanta Taiwan ESG Sustainable (nearly 70%), 00922 Cathay Taiwan Leader 50 (67.9%), and 0051 Yuanta Mid-Cap 100 (67.5%). For 0050, Juan noted a 62.9% recovery, below average due to its high TSMC weighting; after TSMC's strong rally, its price stagnated. 006208, with even higher TSMC exposure, recovered only 57.38%. Semiconductor ETFs suffered the deepest losses and slowest recoveries: 00891 fell 22.9% with 60% recovery, 00947 dropped 34.6% with 57.6% recovery—still only halfway back. Others: 00904 (-25%, 51%), 00913 (-28.8%, 48%), 00941 (-20%, 46%), 00892 (-27%, 44.9%), and 00927 (-27.8%, 41.3%). Semiconductor ETFs generally underperformed market-cap peers in recovery, requiring more time to rebound. Key insights: (1) Shallow drops enable fast recovery—high-dividend ETFs fell 10% vs. semiconductors' 26.6%. Downside protection directly impacts recovery speed and wealth preservation. (2) Equal-weight ETFs demonstrated defensive value, outperforming market-cap ETFs in recovery despite being less exciting. (3) High-dividend ETFs aren't uniform—internal performance varied by 100 percentage points, with traditional and financial stocks outperforming tech, highlighting portfolio structure as critical. (4) Semiconductor ETFs offer high volatility and long recovery paths, still 10–20% below June highs, with the lowest recovery rates. Investors must recognize these are for tactical, not long-term, holding. Stop-loss and take-profit strategies are essential, as pullbacks can be severe after a rally ends.
FACT BOX
- Source: PR Times
- Category: Survey
- Products / services: ETF