Success of Anti-Natalist Trends? Freshman Numbers Drop to Tens of Thousands — 'Deadline Year' May Force 40 Private Universities to Close

Taiwan has entered a super-aged society, with declining birthrates intensifying. According to the Ministry of Education’s recently released '2026 Forecast Report on Student Numbers Across Educational Stages,' all educational levels show a long-term downward trend, with higher education institutions being the most affected.

The report estimates that first-year university enrollment has been steadily declining since the 2015 academic year. By the 2023 academic year, it had dropped to approximately 195,000. Although slight rebounds occurred in the 2024 and 2025 academic years due to fluctuations in birth rates—rising back to around 200,000—the numbers are expected to continue falling thereafter. By the 2041 academic year, freshman enrollment may drop to about 150,000—54,000 fewer than the 205,000 recorded in 2025, representing a 26.3% decline.

What about current total university enrollment? Despite the dragon year effect, the long-term downward trend remains unstoppable.

Notably, the impact of declining birthrates extends beyond just fewer new entrants—it gradually affects the overall student population. Ministry of Education statistics show that total university enrollment remained between 1.11 million and 1.13 million before the 2016 academic year. However, between 2019 and 2024, it decreased by 149,000 in just five years. In the 2025 academic year, total enrollment fell below 850,000.

Due to Taiwan’s so-called 'zodiac effect,' the forecast indicates that student numbers will further decline to 806,000 in the 2029 academic year due to the 'Year of the Tiger effect.' Although the 2033 academic year may see a temporary rebound to 876,000 due to increased births during the dragon year, the downward trend will resume afterward. By the 2041 academic year, total university enrollment is projected to drop to 667,000.

In the past, dragon years always brought baby booms. Illustration. (Photo credit: Ko Cheng-hui)

How many spots are available in the 2026 non-exam admission process? Over 10,000 remaining spots at junior and senior high schools

When extrapolated over 26 academic years, this represents a reduction of approximately 465,000 students compared to the 2015 academic year—a 41.1% decrease. In fact, the impact is already evident in the high school admissions market. According to Ministry of Education data, the actual number of non-exam admission slots offered across 15 school districts nationwide in the 2026 academic year totaled 153,595—about 30,000 fewer than originally listed in the admission guidelines.

Further details reveal that in late July, the Ministry announced that 175 national and private junior and senior high schools under its jurisdiction would conduct supplementary admissions, offering a total of 10,320 spots. Of these, 86 national schools offered 3,509 spots, while 89 private schools offered 6,811 spots—indicating that some schools are already experiencing enrollment pressure.

Is the 2027 academic year the 'deadline' for private universities? Are private colleges entering an era of mass closures?

In response, the Ministry stated in the report that it will continue to control the total number of admission quotas and guide schools to proactively reduce their intake. However, You Rong-hui,理事长 of the Private Schools Workers’ Union, warned that since Gao Feng Digital Content College became the first case of closure in 2014, a total of 17 institutions have shut down. Facing the '2027 academic year deadline'—a new low in freshman numbers—he predicts another wave of closures. After 2027, only 30 to 40 private universities—about one-third to one-half of the current number—are expected to survive by 2041.

Indeed, in 2025, the National Federation of Private School Workers stated that the Ministry estimated freshman enrollment would drop to 173,000 in 2027, at which point around 40 private universities would face closure risks.

More exclusive reports from Storm Media:

· Is Tsinghua University’s president being replaced? Kao Wei-yuan reportedly 'also applying for U.S. university presidency' — Responses from the Ministry and Tsinghua

· Are Taiwan’s youth disheartening? Li Jia-tong urges revival of classroom salutes — Analyst breaks down three mindsets: the last one is the strangest

· Is Hsu Chia-ching in trouble? Accused of letting her son cut in line for Dongsha camp — 'Deemed illegal,'监察院 may impose six-figure fines — Her response