Wang Chi's Perspective: Understanding Polls – Did President Lai's Claim of Fake Polls in Kaohsiung Strike Down Three Firms?

With more than three months remaining until the end of year election, President Lai Ching-te last week claimed in Kaohsiung that fake opinion polls and Chinese interference in the election have emerged, immediately sparking public debate. For a president to accuse media outlets of publishing fake polls is indeed serious, but have the media actually released false data? There remains considerable room for discussion. A commentator on Facebook described this as the malicious behavior of a 'green monster' formed by the fusion of party, government, media, and online networks—first, pro-green media release false information, then the party and government exploit it, followed by widespread dissemination across online platforms.

According to media reports, local municipal elections will be held at the end of November this year. On August 12, the DPP's ad hoc Central Standing Committee meeting was held in Kaohsiung. President Lai Ching-te, who also serves as DPP chairperson, stated that China's Beidaihe meeting has treated the outcome of Taiwan's year-end elections as a benchmark for the success of its cross-strait strategy. He further revealed that fake news and fabricated opinion polls have already appeared in Kaohsiung, and in the future, fake audio and video content, along with various disinformation, are expected to surge. He emphasized that the DPP must win the Kaohsiung election.

After President Lai's claim about fake polls in Kaohsiung, the media outlets accused of publishing false data had not yet responded, but voices on social media platforms quickly emerged in defense—while simultaneously countering President Lai.

A Facebook post titled 'Is the Claim That Lai Jui-long Leads by Less Than 1% False? Lai Ching-te Doesn't Understand Polls and Spreads Rumors About Chinese Interference! Kaohsiung's Green Camp Has Declined for 30 Years—Lai Jui-long Is the Weakest Six-Metropolitan Mayor Candidate the DPP Has Had in Three Decades; Everything Lai Can Do, Chen Chi-mai Has Already Done' was written by Dr. Shen Cheng-nan. The frequently commenting physician stated in the post that during the DPP's ad hoc meeting in Kaohsiung, Lai Ching-te claimed, based on media reports, that China had issued instructions at the Beidaihe meeting to influence Taiwan's year-end elections and had already released a fake poll showing Lai Jui-long leading his opponent by less than 1%. 'Based on media reports?' Which media outlet said this? 'Based on national security officials!' And who are these officials? Isn't it you, Lai Ching-te?... The poll showing Lai Jui-long leading Ko Chih-en by less than 1% was conducted in June by TVBS, commissioned by Ko Chih-en. TVBS has been conducting polls longer than Lai Ching-te has been in politics—how can you accuse them of publishing fake polls?... This is exactly the criticized behavior of the 'party-government-media-network four-in-one green monster': pro-green media first release false information, which is then exploited by the party and government, and subsequently spread across the internet.

The Facebook commentary further noted that apart from the June TVBS poll, the recent 'Giant News World' (commissioned by Nielsen) also found Ko Chih-en trailing Lai Jui-long by only 1.6%. An ETtoday poll from June showed Ko Chih-en leading Lai Jui-long by 4.8%. Are these two also fake polls? Nielsen and ETtoday were among the most accurate in predicting the 2022 Kaohsiung mayoral election results, out of more than a dozen media outlets!

In reality, political insiders familiar with Kaohsiung's election landscape suggest that President Lai, also serving as DPP chairperson, is likely deeply concerned that Kaohsiung might undergo a political shift similar to 2018, when Han Kuo-yu unexpectedly defeated Chen Chi-mai. This fear may explain why he is focusing on polls showing a margin of around 1%. After all, the question arises: which poll is true, and which is fake?

Political analysts point out that President Lai places great importance on opinion polls. The current Deputy Secretary-General of the Presidential Office is a polling expert—an unprecedented high-level appointment in recent decades, highlighting his emphasis on polling data. Moreover, in 2019, when he challenged Tsai Ing-wen for the DPP presidential nomination, he lost in the party's internal polling—a defeat that likely left a lasting impression. On June 13, 2019, the DPP's presidential primary poll results showed Tsai Ing-wen with an average support rate of 35.67%, surpassing Lai's 27.48%. Tsai won the nomination for the 2020 presidential election by a margin of approximately 8.2 percentage points.

Polling professionals also note that labeling a 1% lead or deficit as a 'fake poll' and implying it is part of cognitive warfare by the other side genuinely harms the credibility of media organizations. But the deeper damage may fall on political parties and candidates who rely on polls for internal policy decisions, as well as on the long-standing efforts of Taiwan's polling industry, which could be unfairly tarnished.

For years, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has recognized the impact of polls on elections and has prohibited the publication of polls within 10 days of voting. It also requires media outlets to clearly state the survey methodology, timing, funding sources, and responsible organizations when publishing polls—all measures designed to prevent fake polls. Now, if the two media organizations accused of publishing fake polls have followed CEC rules in releasing their data, how can they be labeled as such?

An insider close to the green camp in Kaohsiung admitted that President Lai's remarks are easily perceived as election tactics. The DPP's current political marketing strategy typically involves pro-green media first releasing news, followed by political figures echoing it, then talk shows and media commentary, and finally widespread online dissemination.

Political figures emphasize that opinion polls reflect fluid public sentiment and constantly change. A 1% lead or deficit today does not determine the final vote count—it merely indicates the current tug-of-war between blue and green voter sentiment. If a party dismisses unfavorable polls as 'fake' while accepting favorable ones as 'true,' it not only weaponizes polling for manipulation but also reveals a lack of confidence in its own candidate. After all, polls are merely reference tools for campaigns; a candidate's true strength remains the decisive factor in the final outcome.

*The author is a veteran journalist with over 30 years of experience. Published with authorization from the Public Fact-Checking Society and 'Ju Media.'