First Golden Cross in 20 Years! Taiwan's Economic Outlook Turns Positive as Optimism Surpasses Pessimism — Hsieh Jin-ho: 'No Need to Bow for China's Concessions'

The latest results of the Taiwan Public Opinion Survey, led by Dai Li-an, have been released. This month's survey shows that 48.3% of respondents believe the domestic economic situation is good, a 4.6 percentage point increase from June, marking the highest level since the survey series began in June 2006. Meanwhile, the proportion of those who view the economy negatively has dropped to 45.2%, the lowest in the survey's history. This marks the first time in 20 years that positive sentiment has overtaken negative sentiment.

Hsieh Jin-ho, Chairman of Wealth & Finance Media, referenced this survey in a Facebook post, reflecting on Taiwan's economic trajectory and cross-strait capital flows.

### Dai Li-an's Taiwan Public Opinion Survey: Positive Economic Sentiment Surpasses Negative for the First Time in 20 Years

According to the survey report, 48.3% of respondents rated the current domestic economic situation as good—10.5% saying 'very good' and 37.8% 'fairly good'—a 4.6 percentage point increase from June and the highest since the survey began in June 2006. Those who view the economy negatively dropped to 45.2%, with 17.9% saying 'very bad' and 27.3% 'somewhat bad,' a 4.4 percentage point decrease from June and the lowest on record. Another 6.5% did not express a clear opinion.

The report notes this is the first time since June 2006 that positive evaluations have exceeded negative ones—what is being called a 'golden cross' after two decades.

Further cross-analysis reveals that over half of men, residents in northern regions including Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, and the Kaoping area, those aged 20–29, university graduates or higher, and supporters of the pan-green camp view the economy positively. Higher education levels correlate with more positive assessments. In contrast, over half of women, residents in central Taiwan (Changhua, Nantou), and the Keelung-Yilan-Hualien-Taitung-outlying islands regions, those aged 30–39 and 50–59, those with junior college degrees, and supporters of the Taiwan People's Party and pan-blue camp view the economy negatively.

Additionally, over 70% of those satisfied with President Lai Qing-de or Premier Cho Jung-tai's administration believe the economy is doing well, while 71.4% of those dissatisfied with President Lai's policies believe the economy is poor.

(Image: Taiwan Public Opinion Survey)

### Economic Growth Forecast Revised to 11.05%! Lai Qing-de Announces $1,000 Cash Handout from 'AI Dividends'

According to the survey report, since July 2026, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, and Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research have all released forecasts for Taiwan's 2026 annual GDP growth, all exceeding 10%. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) further revised its forecast to 11.05% in August, potentially marking the highest since 1988 and surpassing the 10.25% recorded in 2010.

On August 17, President Lai Qing-de announced the 'AI Dividends, Shared by All' policy. The central government's budget for the next fiscal year will include an additional NT$235.7 billion to distribute NT$10,000 in cash to every citizen. The report notes that such measures are common political business cycle tactics used by ruling parties before elections.

The report also recalls that in September of the previous year, the Executive Yuan passed a special budget that similarly included a NT$10,000 cash handout. After the Legislative Yuan passed it in October, the Ministry of Finance began disbursing funds on November 11. By the end of that month, national opinion polls showed a 4.0 percentage point increase in those viewing the economy positively and a 4.6 percentage point decrease in negative assessments—similar to the current public response. However, the report cautions that last year's effect lasted only one month, so whether this year's policy will boost electoral prospects in the upcoming 'Nine-in-One' elections in three months remains uncertain.

### 30 Years of Capital Outflow to China! Hsieh Jin-ho Reflects on Key Turning Points from 1989 to 2017

Hsieh Jin-ho pointed out in his Facebook post that many economic indicators show Taiwan accelerating in AI-related industries. However, he observed that media outlets with pro-China leanings often emphasize public 'economic numbness' and highlight only AI sector performance, ignoring how traditional industries are being hurt by China's overcapacity and low-price competition.

He also noted that the semiconductor industry had already begun accelerating growth as early as 2021. At the time, TSMC's Mark Liu and Powerchip's Frank Huang expressed optimism, but the Economic Daily News ran an editorial titled 'Does the Sacred Mountain Protect the Nation, or Does the Nation Protect the Sacred Mountain?'—a tone of skepticism.

Hsieh stated that as early as 2017, he repeatedly warned that Taiwan's economy was entering a 30-year period of prosperity, though few believed him then. This atmosphere, he said, was the exact opposite of that around 1989. He recalled that in 1989, Taiwan's stock index briefly hit 12,682 points and the New Taiwan Dollar appreciated to 24.52, and he predicted Taiwan would face 30 years of economic hardship—predictions that were also met with disbelief.

He explained that at the time, Taiwan's real estate and stock markets were overheated, and the New Taiwan Dollar reached its peak, naturally triggering capital outflows. Coinciding with Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening-up, Taiwan's talent, logistics, and capital flooded into China, creating a hollowing-out effect. The Ma administration further accelerated capital flight by continuing to extend goodwill to China, trapping Taiwan's economy in long-term stagnation and reinforcing the public perception that 'China's economy is strong while Taiwan's is weak.'

Hsieh also pointed out that many Taiwanese business owners are strict with Taiwan but lenient toward China. For example, Foxconn founder Terry Gou has claimed for over a decade that Taiwan suffers from power shortages, and Taiwan Glass Chairman Lin Po-feng always criticizes Taiwan during blackouts, yet when similar outages occur in China, he says they can be quickly resolved.

### Is China's Economic Outlook Changing? Hsieh: 'Under Xi Jinping, It May Be Reversing Course'

Hsieh mentioned that he had already predicted in 2017 that China's real estate market would face a crisis and was the first to point out that Evergrande Group founder Xu Jiayin would eventually fall. He said Xu moved as much as two trillion RMB from banks and, although now sentenced to life imprisonment, no one has dared to thoroughly audit the bank accounts.

Hsieh believes a nation's rise and fall is closely tied to its system. As Xi Jinping steers China back toward Mao Zedong-style control, China's economy may only regress. He recalled meeting Wang Daohan and Deng Nan in the 1990s and telling them directly, 'Treat Taiwan well, and China will surely become strong.' Today's developments, however, have gone against his expectations.

Hsieh emphasized that Taiwan's next crucial task is for its people to regain confidence. He noted that Taiwan is the world's 22nd largest economy, and its entrepreneurs have the capability to compete globally—there is no need to bow down and expect concessions from the other side.

This survey was designed, analyzed, and led by Dai Li-an, with telephone interviews conducted by Beken Market Research. The survey was carried out from August 19 to 21, 2026, covering 22 counties and cities nationwide. The target population included registered residents aged 20 and above. The sampling method used a dual-frame design combining landline and mobile phone calls. A total of 1,076 valid responses were collected (699 via landline, 377 via mobile). The maximum sampling error at a 95% confidence level is ±3.0%.