Alarming! Taiwan's Population to Drop to 12.15 Million in 50 Years, with Over Half Being Elderly—National Development Council Reveals 'Demographic Cliff'

The National Development Council (NDC) today (28th) released the latest 'Republic of China Population Projection (2026–2075).' Under the combined effects of low fertility rates, a continuously shrinking population of women of childbearing age, and accelerating aging, Taiwan's total population is expected to decline steadily. By 2075—50 years from now—the population could drop from the current 23.19 million to just 12.15 million, a reduction of approximately 11 million people, leaving the population at roughly half its current size.

Notably, this population decline will be accompanied by dramatic shifts in age structure. According to NDC projections, by 2075, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will reach 52.9%, meaning more than half the population will be elderly. Meanwhile, the share of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will decline from 67.9% in 2026 to 42.3% in 2075. The simultaneous contraction of population and aging will place long-term pressure on Taiwan's labor market, consumer demand, industrial structure, and social welfare expenditures.

One of the most critical changes in this projection is the NDC's further downward revision of long-term fertility assumptions. According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan's total fertility rate dropped to 0.695 in 2025, below previous projections. At the same time, the population of women aged 20 to 49 peaked in 2005 and has been declining ever since. Additionally, the marriage rate among women aged 20 to 49 has been decreasing annually, shrinking the base of people capable of having children.

As a result, the NDC has revised downward its long-term fertility rate assumptions. Previously, the high, medium, and low scenarios projected fertility rates of 1.3, 1.0, and 0.8 by 2070, respectively. These have now been revised to 1.1, 0.8, and 0.6 by 2075. In other words, even if fertility rates gradually recover in the future, the population structure will continue to face prolonged contraction pressure due to the shrinking base of women of childbearing age.

In terms of total population, Taiwan's population decline will progressively accelerate. In 2026, the total population is projected at approximately 23.19 million, with 15.76 million (67.9%) aged 15 to 64 and 4.86 million (20.9%) aged 65 and over. By 2035, the total population will drop to 21.97 million, a decrease of about 1.22 million over 10 years. The elderly share will rise to 28.7%, meaning nearly one in three people will be elderly.

By 2045, the total population will further decline to 19.98 million, officially falling below the 20 million threshold. The elderly share will reach 37.0%, while the working-age population share will drop to 57.9%. By 2055, the total population will be around 17.52 million, with the working-age population falling to 8.92 million—down 6.84 million from 15.76 million in 2026, a decline of over 40%. The elderly population will reach 7.68 million, accounting for 43.8% of the total.

Extending to 2075, the total population is projected to fall to just 12.15 million, with the working-age population at approximately 5.13 million (42.3%) and the elderly population reaching 6.43 million (52.9%). This means that in 50 years, Taiwan's elderly population will outnumber its working-age population.

These demographic shifts directly impact dependency burdens. The NDC uses the 'potential support ratio' to measure how many working-age people (aged 15–64) support each person aged 65 and over. In 2026, each elderly person is supported by approximately 3.2 working-age individuals. This drops to 2.2 in 2035, 1.6 in 2045, and 1.2 in 2055.

By 2065, the potential support ratio will fall below 1, to 0.9, and by 2075, it will drop to just 0.8. At that point, each elderly person will be supported by fewer than one working-age individual. In terms of dependency ratios, in 2026, every 100 working-age people support 47.2 dependents (children and elderly). This rises to 55.2 in 2035, 72.8 in 2045, and exceeds 96 in 2055.

By 2075, the dependency ratio will reach 136.6, meaning every 100 working-age individuals will need to support 136.6 dependents. The burden from elderly care (elder dependency ratio) will be 125.2, far exceeding the child dependency ratio of 11.4, indicating that the core of future dependency pressure will increasingly shift toward an aging society.

For Taiwan, these demographic changes will have wide-ranging implications. As the working-age population continues to shrink, businesses will face increasing labor supply pressures, requiring greater automation, AI, robotics, and productivity improvements to fill labor gaps. The consumer market will also be reshaped by declining population and shifting age structures.

On the other hand, the rapid rise in the elderly share means growing demand for healthcare, long-term care, pensions, and social welfare, placing greater long-term pressure on government finances and social insurance systems. The NDC stated that to address aging and population decline, the Executive Yuan has established a cross-ministerial 'New Population Strategy Implementation Task Force.' In May, it launched the 'New Population Strategy for Taiwan—Family Support Chapter,' encompassing 18 measures including childbearing support, childcare, education, family-friendly workplaces, and housing. Subsequent chapters on the 'Silver Generation,' 'Lifelong Talent Development,' and 'Global Talent Acquisition' are also planned.

The NDC has also, for the first time, incorporated indicators such as prenatal examination counts and marriage registrations into short-term birth number projections, aiming to improve the timeliness of population forecasts. However, the latest figures suggest that the demographic changes driven by low fertility have already become highly persistent. As the working-age population continues to shrink and the elderly share exceeds 50%, businesses, government budgets, and the very model of economic growth will face long-term structural adjustments.