Polls Reveal KMT's Weakening Base in Taipei and New Taipei; Lin Tsu-sheng Criticizes 'Zheng Fu-weng' for Misconduct: Can They Still Maintain Their Ironclad Formation?

New opinion polls have been released for the mayoral elections in Taipei and New Taipei. In the Taipei mayoral race, DPP candidate Shen Bo-yang leads with 41.7% support, narrowly ahead of KMT candidate Chiang Wan-an's 40.5%. In the New Taipei mayoral race, DPP candidate Su Hsiaohui leads with 38.2% support, slightly ahead of KMT candidate Li Chia-chuan's 37.1%. Former DPP legislator Lin Tsu-sheng has raised questions about the traditional view that the 'blue' (KMT) camp is dominant in both Taipei and New Taipei, based on the polling results in Da'an and Dongshan districts in Taipei.

The Information and Culture Research Association released a Taipei mayoral poll on September 22, showing Shen Bo-yang leading with 44.3% support in Da'an District, narrowly ahead of Chiang Wan-an's 43.2%. In Dongshan District, Chiang Wan-an leads with 47.3% support, significantly ahead of Shen Bo-yang's 31.5%. On September 23, Shock Media released a New Taipei mayoral poll showing Su Hsiaohui leading Li Chia-chuan by 1.1 percentage points, with respondents' party preferences being 33.4% for the DPP, 28.7% for the KMT, and 10.6% for the Taiwan People's Party.

Lin Tsu-sheng noted that Shen Bo-yang's victory in Da'an District, traditionally considered a deep blue area, contrasts with Chiang Wan-an's significant lead in Dongshan District, traditionally a green (DPP) stronghold. He attributes this to the candidates' cultural styles, particularly the 'hipster' trend represented by Shen Bo-yang, which he believes is becoming mainstream. Lin defines this 'hipster' trend as originating from literary workshops and campus folk songs, which have influenced Shen Bo-yang's image.

Lin also questioned the traditional view that the political landscape in Taipei is 'ironclad' and unchanging, citing the New Taipei poll results where the DPP's support rate (33.4%) exceeds that of the KMT (28.7%). He criticized KMT leaders, referring to them as 'Zheng Fu-weng' (KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen, Legislative Yuan party whip Fu Khang-sheng, and legislator Wong Hsiao-ling), for their inability to adapt to changing circumstances and for their misconduct.

The Taipei poll was conducted from September 16 to 18, surveying 1,076 people, including 752 landline and 324 mobile phone respondents, with a maximum sampling error of ±3 percentage points citywide. The New Taipei poll was conducted from September 20 to 21, surveying 1,076 landline phone respondents, with a sampling error of approximately ±2.99 percentage points citywide. The lead margins in both cities are within their respective published sampling error ranges. The district samples for Da'an and Dongshan are even smaller, making it difficult to conclude that the districts have flipped based on a single poll.