Over 90% of 2026 World Cup Matches Face Extreme Heat Risk, Potentially Affecting Player Performance

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches, the event, spanning Canada, Mexico, and the United States, faces a significantly rising probability of high temperatures that could weaken player performance, according to a recently released analysis by an independent U.S. research institution.

A report from Climate Central, a U.S. non-profit research organization composed of meteorologists and other researchers, indicates that this year's World Cup will kick off with an opening ceremony in Mexico City on the 11th and will feature 104 matches across 16 stadiums in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The study found that 97 of the 104 matches face a high-temperature risk that could lead to a decline in player performance levels.

The Climate Central research team analyzed temperatures during the World Cup period using historical data and assessed their impact on player performance. The results showed that due to the effects of global warming caused by climate change, the probability of sweltering weather that could hinder players' performance has significantly increased.

Of the 104 matches, 49 have at least a 50% chance of experiencing extreme heat. The risk of dangerous temperatures is particularly high for the match between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 in Guadalajara, Mexico.

According to an analysis published by Polish researchers in 2017, when temperatures exceed 28 degrees Celsius, the heat significantly affects soccer players' conditions, such as running speed and distance, and can even influence game tactics and style.

Climate Central points out that under extreme heat, 'perspiration,' the body's primary cooling mechanism, may not provide sufficient cooling to prevent overheating. When high temperatures combine with high humidity, the rate of sweat evaporation slows, preventing rapid cooling.

This humid heat can paralyze the body's thermoregulatory system, leading to heat-related illnesses, including heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and even potentially fatal medical emergencies like heatstroke.

Athletes are at an even higher risk for heat-related illnesses because the body generates more heat during exercise. Outdoor matches and limitations on substitutions during the game further increase the risk to players' health and performance. A 2012 study found that, compared to a mild environment, a soccer player's body temperature could rise by about 1.1°C in extreme heat, which can lead to dehydration and hyperthermia.

In response, the World Cup organizers have increased the number of night games in relatively hot cities and mandated water breaks for players to care for both them and the fans. However, most stadiums are open-air designs, leaving players and millions of fans still exposed to the intense heat.

Professor Mike Tipton of the University of Portsmouth in the UK noted, 'Playing in an environment exceeding 28 degrees Celsius changes the tactics and rhythm of the game. The higher the temperature, the greater the risk. This requires extra caution, especially in a tournament like the World Cup where players tend to push themselves to their limits.'

However, according to FIFA, FIFPRO (the world players' union), and a growing body of scientific research, extreme heat and humidity are just a few of the climate-related risks. Various competitions are facing multiple challenges, including changing rainfall patterns, more frequent high-water floods, wildfires, and heavy smoke.