Senior Officials Resign: Understanding Why the UK's Defence Strategy Faces Crisis

(CNA, London, 12th – comprehensive foreign report) The resignation of the UK Defence Secretary and Deputy Secretary has drawn widespread attention to the country's dwindling military resources. In their resignation letters, both officials harshly criticized the upcoming defence spending plan, stating it not only lacks sufficient budget but also innovative thinking.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer swiftly responded on June 11 by appointing Dan Jarvis, a former paratrooper officer once nicknamed the 'Iceman,' as the new Defence Secretary.

Below is a summary by AFP of key points from the highly anticipated but yet-to-be-released 10-year 'Defence Investment Plan' (DIP), along with the current resource challenges facing the British military.

Reports indicate that the UK Ministry of Defence faces a funding shortfall of up to £28 billion (approximately NT$1.2 trillion) between now and 2030.

Former Defence Secretary John Healey sharply criticized Prime Minister Starmer and the Treasury in a strongly worded resignation letter, accusing the government of failing to allocate sufficient resources to safeguard national security amid 'growing global threats.'

Healey pointed out that although there is an urgent need to enhance military readiness over the next two years, the government has 'pushed back' new defence spending, allocating it only toward the end of this decade-long plan.

Fenella McGerty, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told AFP this means the 'budget growth curve will resemble a hockey stick—light at the beginning and heavy at the end—with the vast majority of funding increases only arriving in the final years of the plan.'

Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged NATO allies to increase defence spending and reduce reliance on Washington for security.

In response, Starmer has pledged to raise defence expenditure to 2.5% of GDP starting next year; if the Labour Party wins re-election in the 2029 general election, this will rise to 3%, and ultimately reach 3.5% by 2035.

However, Jamie Gaskarth, a scholar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), stated bluntly that such a budget level 'would at best only suffice for military operations within the UK and its immediate neighboring regions.'

Nick Reynolds, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), also told AFP that the UK must 'face choices realistically and seriously, clarifying what it can and cannot do.'

He emphasized that even before discussing modernization, simply repairing army and navy equipment would require 'a significant increase in defence spending.'

On February 28, after US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered conflict in the Middle East, the British Navy took weeks to successfully deploy a warship to the Persian Gulf to reassure allies.

Gaskarth noted this was because 'for years, the British military has fallen into a trap of having increasingly sophisticated equipment but fewer in number. This means that once a crisis erupts, it is impossible to expect deployable forces ready at hand across various strategic regions globally.'

Following his superior Healey, Al Carns, the Minister for the Armed Forces at the Ministry of Defence, also submitted his resignation on the same day, June 11.

On June 12, in an interview with the BBC, Carns criticized the defence investment plan as 'resembling a study on how to fight the last war, not the next conflict,' and said it suffers from 'a lack of innovation and failure to learn from the battlefield in Ukraine.'

In an interview with GB News, Carns stated more bluntly that he hopes for greater investment in unmanned systems, as 'in today’s era, data is ammunition.'

According to an unnamed senior military official cited by The Times, the yet-to-be-released plan overly emphasizes traditional 'hardware' such as warships, tanks, and fighter jets. Some officials argue that budgets should be prioritized for emerging technologies, including AI-driven software, space and cyber warfare capabilities, hypersonic missiles, and low-cost drones.

Reynolds pointed out that drones are low-cost, high-precision fire systems with ranges far exceeding traditional artillery, 'making their integration into military structure crucial, as they can provide massive suppressive firepower at an affordable cost.'

Gaskarth noted that while the UK has invested in drones, it 'cannot be considered a comprehensive strategic transformation,' with focus mainly on domestic production rather than flexible outsourcing models like Ukraine’s.

He said: 'Senior decision-makers, service chiefs, and political leaders constantly claim that threats to the UK are imminent, yet the pace of defence reform moves at a snail’s pace.'

Although the defence investment plan has been delayed multiple times, Starmer insists he will officially unveil it before the NATO summit in Turkey on July 7.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Western bloc has generally viewed Russia as the most immediate threat and China as a medium- to long-term concern.

Gaskarth said: 'The most direct and urgent threat is undoubtedly Russia. But even if the UK chooses to ignore the threat from China, that threat still exists in reality.'

On June 12, Carns posted on social media platform X, admitting that over the past decade, the UK has 'actively chosen to limit its role on the world stage.'

He wrote: 'Right now, global rules on communications, energy, and trade are being rewritten—led by China, Russia, and countries that truly take their own security seriously. We must also take our seat at the table. This is a choice the UK cannot avoid.' (Translation: Chen Yi-wei) 1150613