China's auto exports expected to exceed 10 million vehicles in 2026

(CNA, Shanghai, July 1, 2024) -- China's auto exports have already surpassed 4 million vehicles from January to May this year, a year-on-year increase of 63%. If this export pace continues, China's auto exports are projected to reach 10 million vehicles in 2026. Japanese media attribute this trend to a decrease in domestic demand in China and a surge in global electric vehicle demand driven by soaring crude oil prices.

Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that China exported 4.05 million vehicles from January to May this year, a 63% increase year-on-year. Among these, new energy vehicle exports reached 1.83 million units, an increase of 1.1 times compared to the same period last year, far exceeding the 36% growth rate of fuel vehicles.

Nikkei Chinese website reported that due to tensions in the Middle East driving up crude oil prices, global demand for new energy vehicles such as pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles has increased because they consume less fuel.

The report cited global consulting firm AlixPartners, which predicts that if the current export pace continues, exports in 2026 will increase by 41% compared to 2025, reaching 10 million vehicles. If achieved, China would become the first country in the world to export 10 million vehicles. This is approximately 2.5 times the export volume of Japan.

China's auto exports surpassed Japan's in 2023 with 4.91 million vehicles, ranking first in the world for the first time.

The report points out that the main reason for the surge in China's auto exports is the decrease in domestic sales. AlixPartners forecasts that China's new car sales in 2026 will be 24.6 million units, a 10% decrease from 2025, due to an economic slowdown and changes in the government's new energy vehicle subsidy policies.

Against this backdrop, Chinese automobiles are flowing into the European market. Chinese brands are expected to capture a 10% market share in Europe in 2025, and AlixPartners predicts this will reach 16% by 2030. Chinese cars, with their advantage of lower prices, are attracting many young consumers in places like Germany.

As China's auto exports continue to increase, various countries are implementing tariff measures against Chinese vehicles. Chinese automakers are responding by shifting to local production. AlixPartners forecasts that the overseas production capacity of major Chinese automakers (including existing and planned factories) will reach approximately 3.4 million units by 2030, 2.8 times that of 2025.

European companies like Volkswagen are forced to compete on price with Chinese automobiles. Foreign media recently reported that Volkswagen may lay off 100,000 employees and close 4 German factories in the coming years. (Editor: Chu Chien-ling) 1150701

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