Asia Pacific Roundtable Focuses on China-Japan Relations; Scholars Say Tensions Not Out of Control

(Central News Agency, reporter Huang Tzu-chiang, Kuala Lumpur, July 1st) The 39th Asia Pacific Roundtable (APR) has commenced, with China-Japan relations becoming a focal point of attention at the venue. Scholars from Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia attending the conference generally believe that the two sides will maintain a confrontational stance in the short term, but it has not yet reached a point of being out of control. If neither Beijing nor Tokyo releases goodwill, the regional situation may continue to escalate.

The 39th Asia Pacific Roundtable is being held in Kuala Lumpur from June 30th to July 2nd. This year's theme is "Accelerating Agency and Action," inviting government officials, scholars, think tanks, and business representatives from the Asia Pacific region to exchange views on geopolitical, security, and economic issues.

Recent deterioration in China-Japan relations has become one of the focal points of discussion at the conference. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks last November regarding "a Taiwan contingency" drew strong dissatisfaction from Beijing. In May of this year, Japan and the Philippines announced the launch of negotiations to delineate exclusive economic zones in the waters east of Taiwan, which again provoked a strong reaction from Beijing. Recently, China has continuously criticized Japan for moving towards "new militarism," and bilateral relations remain tense.

Chen Chih-chieh, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, who is attending the conference, told CNA today that tensions in China-Japan relations are not a recent development. In recent years, Japan has actively expanded its Indo-Pacific diplomacy and promoted the relaxation of related regulations, hoping to expand its defense industry exports, which has drawn high attention from China.

He stated that the Japanese political scene has also discussed scenarios of "a Taiwan contingency" and Japan's cooperation with the Philippines on maritime issues. Beijing believes that Japan's actions have touched upon China's sovereignty and security interests, further intensifying the tense relationship between the two sides.

He believes that although China-Japan relations are currently unfriendly, they are not yet out of control. China's sanctions against Japan in areas such as economy and tourism are selective, and the actual impact on Japan is limited. Therefore, although the two sides continue to confront each other, it has not yet developed to the extent of triggering military conflict or a major security crisis.

Liu Fu-kuo, an adjunct researcher at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, stated that the development of China-Japan relations is currently a focus of attention in the Asia Pacific region, not only affecting the interactions between the two countries but also concerning the security situation in Northeast Asia. Since the Sanae Takaichi government took office, it has continuously strengthened defense and surrounding security deployments, investing significant resources in building and upgrading weapon systems, causing continuous tension in China-Japan diplomatic relations.

Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, pointed out in an interview that the core issue in China-Japan relations is the lack of mutual trust. From another perspective, China is in a stronger position compared to Japan. If the situation is to be de-escalated, it may require more proactive goodwill from China, but Beijing has not yet shown such an intention.

He stated that the most ideal way to ease tensions is for both sides to take a step back, but at this stage, neither Beijing nor Tokyo has shown signs of compromise, and the tensions will continue, possibly even escalating further. However, the extent to which the situation escalates is difficult to predict. The key lies in whether both sides simultaneously believe it is necessary to de-escalate; if only one side releases goodwill, the situation may be difficult to truly resolve.

From the perspective of Southeast Asia, Oh Ei Sun, Chief Advisor at the Pacific Research Center in Malaysia, emphasized that the situation in Northeast Asia has been tense for a long time, and China-Japan relations have particularly deteriorated in recent years. Southeast Asian countries least wish to see a conflict erupt between the two sides, because once the situation gets out of control, neighboring countries will inevitably be affected.

He pointed out that in the face of US-China competition and China-Japan tensions, ASEAN countries, despite their different political systems and levels of development, still hope to seek common ground on economic and strategic issues through the ASEAN platform, and prioritize strengthening their own food security, energy security, and economic resilience, and then use collective strength to maintain normal interactions with China, the United States, and other parties.

Attending scholars believe that although China-Japan relations are currently tense, they are not out of control. Whether the situation will escalate in the future still depends on whether Beijing and Tokyo can rebuild mutual trust and whether both sides are willing to release goodwill simultaneously.

This year's Asia Pacific Roundtable agenda covers topics such as "A Disordered World Order," "Sino-Indian Geopolitical Competition Under the Global South," "Reviewing the ASEAN Mechanism," "Asia Pacific Nuclear Arms Race," and "Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Restructuring," reflecting the common concerns of the region regarding Asia Pacific security and geopolitics. (Editor: Tian Rui-hua) 1150701

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