Analysis: PLA Submarine Missile Test in Inland Sea Aims to Break Free From First Island Chain Constraints

(Central News Agency, reporter Zhang Qian, Hong Kong, July 6) Regarding the PLA's successful test-firing of a strategic missile from a submarine, some Chinese military platforms believe that the test launch location may have been China's Bohai Sea. This launch suggests that PLA submarines can apparently fire missiles from their "doorstep," free from the traditional external perception that they "must bypass the First Island Chain."

Chinese official media announced today that a PLA strategic nuclear submarine successfully launched a submarine-launched strategic missile carrying a training dummy warhead into a relevant area of the Pacific Ocean's high seas, accurately hitting the designated maritime zone.

A video analysis by the Chinese military platform "Hu Ben Wei" speculates that the launch location was likely the Bohai Sea, an inland sea of China. The trajectory of the launch coincides with that of the Dongfeng-5 missile test-fired from land-based silos into the Pacific in 1980.

According to the analysis, the Bohai Sea has an average depth of only 18 meters and a maximum depth of over 80 meters. Launching a missile from a submarine here is more difficult than in the deep sea. Therefore, the success of this launch also signifies that PLA submarines may no longer need to venture into the deep waters of the Pacific for strikes and are not bound by the assumption that they "must bypass the First Island Chain."

The analysis states that in September 2024, the PLA also launched Dongfeng-31A/G intercontinental missiles into the Pacific using mobile land-based launchers.

Combined with this submarine-launched missile, the PLA now believes it possesses a triad of nuclear strike capabilities—silos, land-based launchers, and submarines—from its "doorstep," capable of covering the U.S. West Coast. (Editor: Lu Jia-rong) 1150706

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