US Think Tank: US-China Competition is Settled, Taiwan is the Decisive Pivot

Central News Agency, Taipei, May 24. After the Trump-Xi meeting, US President Trump stated that the pending arms sales to Taiwan are a good bargaining chip. Lien Hsien-ming, President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, pointed out today that US think tanks analyze that Trump is unlikely to abandon Taiwan, that US-China competition is a settled reality, and that Taiwan is the important pivot determining victory or defeat. Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May and stated after his visit that he would soon make a decision on the $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, calling it a "good bargaining chip." In response, Lien shared on Facebook today the assessment of US think tanks on the impact of the Trump-Xi meeting on Taiwan. Lien stated that in terms of security, US think tanks believe Trump is unlikely to abandon Taiwan for three main reasons: first, Trump does not want to be known as the US president who abandoned Taiwan; second, Trump's national security report mentions Taiwan eight times, indicating that his national security team attaches great importance to the First Island Chain; and third, US-China competition is a settled reality, and Taiwan is the decisive pivot. However, Lien noted that some think tanks warn that Trump may use arms sales to Taiwan to negotiate with China. Since China values this issue, Trump will naturally use it as leverage, "but it is more likely to be a delay in the announcement rather than a cancellation of the arms sale." China is also aware of this possibility, so the trade items and amounts announced at this meeting were lower than expected, as both sides are observing each other's subsequent actions. As the two leaders may meet multiple times this year, they are testing each other's bottom lines. On the economic front, Lien stated that regarding Taiwan's trade surplus with the US, which was about $150 billion last year and may exceed $200 billion this year, some US think tanks have kindly warned that if Trump learns of this figure, it may trigger a strong reaction, and Taiwan may be asked to increase investment in the US. He further explained that although Taiwan has explained that about $40 billion is due to South Korean AI memory and that Taiwan is helping the US build a foundational AI supply chain, think tanks still warn that "Trump has no time to look at the details." What Trump cares about is how much Taiwan will invest in the US this year, how many jobs it will create, and which investments will fall into key areas for the midterm elections, as these are the only things that can appease Trump's obsession with trade deficits. Lien also pointed out that think tanks agree that Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain is important to the US, especially regarding supply chain resilience and TSMC's international layout. They also discussed Taiwan's energy layout, specifically how Taiwan would respond and ensure energy stability if China were to blockade the strait similar to Iran. On the political front, Lien said that Washington think tanks do not expect any new declarations or communiques, likely just each side stating their own positions, with little substantive change. However, in terms of face, Trump advocates great power politics and "does not care much about value alliances, clearly prioritizing China, and may not necessarily give Taiwan good face or treatment."