Shipping Experts: Iran Appears to Have Taken Control of Strait of Hormuz Operations

According to a report by the Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI), Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, stated on the 23rd that while many initially viewed Iran’s proposal to charge navigation service fees as a negotiation tactic, the industry's attitude has shifted significantly in the last two days. Industry insiders are now discussing scenarios where Iran ultimately manages the strait.

Meade noted that while hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran will eventually end and cargo volumes will recover, "there is a consensus in the industry that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war state of free passage."

He further explained that at a recent industry conference in Hong Kong, more than half of the attendees raised their hands to agree that they would be willing to consider establishing a management system for the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the newly established 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' (PGSA) by the Iranian military is expected to remain in place even after a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran to manage the strait's shipping lanes.

Meade also mentioned that nationality-based priority and fee systems are likely to become the management model for the Persian Gulf. He predicted that vessels with ties to China would be able to pass relatively freely, while Western vessels would need bilateral government cover.

The report emphasized that governments including India, Japan, and South Korea have already reached limited vessel passage agreements through bilateral channels. Vessels with ties to China appear to have secured the maximum passage volume.

Meade stated bluntly, "The strait will be permanently divided, and passage rights will depend on political stance rather than freedom of navigation." The shipping market is beginning to adapt to a trade model operating under geopolitical influence.

Arsenio Longo, founder of maritime intelligence firm HUAX, told AGBI that recent movements of non-Iranian oil tankers show that the Strait of Hormuz is operating under a completely different new architecture.

"The rules of the game for this route are no longer neutral," Longo said, adding that the new operational structure will be divided into normal navigation and restricted passage, with more political filtering, stricter documentation requirements, and selective transport.

Tomer Raanan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List, analyzed the passage data released by Iran and stated that Iran has now established an effective passage control mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.

Raanan added that Iran's move to release the data seems to be an attempt to show the world that "everything has returned to normal according to our new rules of the game."