Tokyo's Unstoppable Concentration Continues, but Growth Slows: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Now Home to Over 30% of Japan's Population — Insights from the 2025 Census Preliminary Data

Global Link Management Co., Ltd. (headquartered in Shibuya, Tokyo), which provides real estate to domestic and international operators, established the 'Global Urban Real Estate Institute' (hereinafter, the Institute) on January 1, 2019, appointing Professor Emeritus Hiroo Ichikawa of Meiji University as Director. The Institute was founded with two primary objectives: (1) to analyze Tokyo as a city and promote its appeal globally, and (2) to develop new real estate-based services.

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The Institute has now released its 40th research report, analyzing the preliminary results of the 2025 national census.

【01】National and Prefectural Population Trends

・Japan’s total population decreased by 3.097 million (△2.5%) compared to 2020. ・Only Tokyo and Okinawa prefectures recorded population growth.

On May 29, 2026, the preliminary population estimates for the 2025 (Reiwa 7) national census were released. The national census is Japan’s most fundamental statistical survey, conducted every five years to count all individuals and households residing in Japan. The preliminary data published this time were compiled from summary tables submitted by municipalities, providing rapid estimates of population by gender and number of households as of October 1, 2025.

This report analyzes the latest preliminary census data to examine population trends across Japan, the Tokyo metropolitan area, and Tokyo’s 23 wards.

As of October 1, 2025, Japan’s total population stood at 123.05 million, a decrease of 3.097 million (2.5%) from the previous 2020 census, marking a significant expansion in the rate of decline 【Figure 1】.

Source: Created using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan, “Preliminary Results of the 2025 National Census” and past “Census Results”

By prefecture, Tokyo had the highest population at 14.246 million, accounting for 11.6% of the national total. This was followed by Kanagawa Prefecture (9.194 million), Osaka Prefecture (8.765 million), Aichi Prefecture (7.449 million), Saitama Prefecture (7.287 million), and Chiba Prefecture (6.259 million).

From 2020 to 2025, only Tokyo (1.4%) and Okinawa (0.1%) saw population growth, while the other 45 prefectures experienced declines. Even in these two growing prefectures, growth rates have shrunk compared to the 2015–2020 period: Tokyo’s growth slowed from 3.9% to 1.4% (a 2.5-point decrease), and Okinawa’s from 2.4% to 0.1% (a 2.3-point decrease). Notably, six prefectures—Chiba, Kanagawa, Saitama, Fukuoka, Aichi, and Shiga—that previously saw growth have now turned to decline.

On the other hand, the highest population decline rates were observed in Akita Prefecture (△8.1%), followed by Aomori (△7.9%) and Iwate (△7.0%), all showing widening gaps in population loss 【Table 1】.

Source: Created using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan, “Preliminary Results of the 2025 National Census” and past “Census Results” Note: Rankings (top and bottom 10) are based on 2020–2025 growth/decline rates.

【02】Population Trends in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba)

・The Tokyo metropolitan area’s population reached 36.986 million, exceeding 30% of the national total. ・Population decline in surrounding prefectures; accelerating depopulation in suburban and peripheral municipalities.

The population of the Tokyo metropolitan area (the one metropolis and three prefectures: Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa) totaled 36,985,557, an increase of 71,381 (0.2%) from 2020, surpassing 30.1% of Japan’s total population for the first time. However, this increase is only about one-tenth of the 783,491 (2.2%) growth recorded between 2015 and 2020 【Figure 2】.

Source: Created using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan, “Preliminary Results of the 2025 National Census” and past “Census Results”

Of this, Tokyo increased by 198,621 (1.4%) from 2020 to 2025, while Saitama decreased by 57,596 (△0.8%), Chiba by 25,968 (△0.4%), and Kanagawa by 43,676 (△0.5%). Tokyo’s population growth barely exceeded the combined population loss of the three surrounding prefectures 【Table 2】.

Source: Created using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan, “Preliminary Results of the 2025 National Census” and past “Census Results” Note: Population figures used for calculating changes (rates) are adjusted for boundary changes, so they may not exactly match calculations derived from table values.

While the 2020–2022 pandemic may have partially affected migration patterns within the Tokyo area, the nationwide trend of population decline is now evident in reduced inflows to the Tokyo metropolitan area and, within the area itself, population losses exceeding inflows—especially in the three surrounding prefectures.

At the municipal level, many municipalities on the outer edges of the Tokyo metropolitan area recorded population declines exceeding △10%, and even in suburban and near-suburban areas, population loss is becoming widespread.

In the three surrounding prefectures, only a limited number of municipalities saw growth: in Saitama, only 10 municipalities including Asaka (4.3%), Warabi (1.7%), Saitama City (1.6%), and Koshigaya (1.1%); in Chiba, only 12 including Nagareyama (7.6%), Inzai (7.6%), Yachiyo (2.8%), Chiba City (2.1%), and Kashiwa (2.1%); and in Kanagawa, only 7 including Ebina (3.8%), Yamato (3.0%), Fujisawa (1.6%), and Kawasaki (1.5%). Growth is largely confined to areas near central Tokyo or those benefiting from improved accessibility due to new railway lines. Notably, among Kanagawa’s designated cities, Sagamihara (△1.8%) and Yokohama (△0.6%), where declines are evident in both southern and northern districts, have seen overall population decreases.

In Tokyo, while the special wards (23 wards) saw population growth (2.3%), the Tama region (excluding island areas) experienced a decline (△0.4%). Significant population losses were observed in rural districts such as Okutama Town (△12.2%) and Hinohara Village (△12.1%), as well as in cities like Tama (△3.9%), Higashimurayama (△3.0%), Akiruno (△2.6%), Musashimurayama (△2.5%), and Machida (△2.3%).

In suburban and near-suburban municipalities, excluding a few cities receiving inflows of young families from central Tokyo, natural decrease—where deaths exceed births due to aging and low birthrates—is rapidly expanding, accelerating population decline 【Figure 3】.

Source: Created using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan, “Preliminary Results of the 2025 National Census” Note: In this figure, Tokyo’s wards are color-coded by special ward, and designated cities by administrative ward.

【03】Population Trends in Tokyo’s 23 Wards

・Overall population in the 23 wards increased by approximately 220,000 (2.3%) ・20 wards saw growth; Chiyoda, Shibuya, and Meguro wards turned to decline

The population of Tokyo’s 23 wards reached 9,953,160, an increase of 219,884 (2.3%) from 2020. However, this growth is less than half of the 460,536 (5.0%) increase recorded between 2015 and 2020. Of the 23 wards, 20 saw population growth, while Chiyoda, Shibuya, and Meguro wards experienced declines.

In terms of absolute growth, Koto Ward (+29,048) led, followed by Taito Ward (+16,946), Katsushika Ward (+14,521), Sumida Ward (+13,118), and Kita Ward (+13,077). In growth rate, Taito Ward (8.3%) ranked highest.