Is the Waterfront Tower Mansion Market at a Turning Point? The Positive Shift Toward 'Return to Real Demand' Behind Rapid Inventory Growth

Survey Overview: Period: Jan 2021 - May 25, 2026. Agency: Mansion Research Co., Ltd. Target: Secondary condominiums in Chuo and Koto Wards, Tokyo. Sample size: 21,264 cases. Methodology: Aggregated public listing data with statistical processing. For the past several years, secondary condominium prices in Tokyo's waterfront area have soared. Major areas like Harumi, Kachidoki, Toyosu, and Ariake have been driven by domestic demand, foreign investors, and speculative flipping. However, in 2026, a clear shift has emerged: prices remain high, but liquidity is dropping. Inventory for high-end properties (average listing price over 80 million yen) grew from 1,050 in Jan 2025 to 1,500 in April 2026—a 1.5x increase in just over a year. This suggests that buyers can no longer keep up with prices. Properties sold since 2026 show increased price reductions and longer time-on-market. This indicates that the overheated price formation has entered a correction phase. Moving forward, the waterfront market is likely to transition from investment-led to a more stable, end-user-focused market.