The Underlying Strength of the Tokyo Housing Market Proven by Detached House Demand: Is the Increase in Apartment Inventory a Return to Real Demand?

[Survey Overview 1]

Survey Period: January 2024 - March 2026 Research Agency: Mansion Research Co., Ltd. Survey Target: Used apartment sales cases in the 23 wards of Tokyo Number of Sample Cases: 182,367 cases Survey Method: Collected published sales information of used apartments and aggregated it using statistical processing.

[Survey Overview 2]

Survey Period: January 2023 - March 2026 Research Agency: Mansion Research Co., Ltd. Survey Target: Detached houses in Tokyo Number of Sample Cases: 450,838 sales cases Survey Method: Collected published sales information of used apartments and aggregated it using statistical processing.

The expansion of detached house demand progressing behind soaring apartment prices: Changes occurring in the Tokyo housing market

When talking about the housing market in Tokyo, the soaring prices of condominiums have become a major topic in recent years. Particularly in the city center and bay areas, prices have continued to rise regardless of whether the properties are new or used, and the debate over "how high will Tokyo apartment prices go?" has been repeated. Therefore, when discussing the housing market as a whole, attention tends to focus solely on the apartment market.

However, on the other hand, a change that cannot be overlooked is occurring in Tokyo's detached house market. To understand the behavioral changes of home buyers, it is necessary to look at the trends not only in the apartment market but also in the detached house market.

The data below shows the trends in the number of sales of detached houses in Tokyo and the average floor area of sold detached houses.

Source: Fukushima Soken

Looking at the data, it is evident that the number of sales is on an upward trend, and the average area of sold detached houses is also expanding. Generally, when housing prices rise, the number of buyers decreases, making the market more likely to shrink. However, in the current Tokyo area, the demand for detached houses appears to be growing stronger instead.

Changes in housing acquisition behavior brought about by soaring apartment prices

The background to this is thought to be a change in housing acquisition behavior due to the rise in apartment prices.

In central Tokyo, apartment prices have risen significantly over the past few years. In particular, the price increase for units of 70 sqm or more and layouts of 3LDK or more, which are sought after by families, has been large, raising the hurdle for purchase for many households.

In the past, when households with children considered purchasing an apartment, there were plenty of options even in the city center and its surrounding areas. But now, it is not uncommon for it to cost close to 100 million yen to acquire a spacious unit in the same area.

Home buyers need to balance "location," "size," and "price" within a limited budget. As a result of the rise in apartment prices, it is possible that some of the demographics who previously considered buying an apartment as their first choice are expanding their options to include detached houses that can secure a larger living space.

The price gap between apartments and detached houses shown by numbers

When actually comparing properties distributed in Tokyo, the difference is clear.

Source: Fukushima Soken

Comparing properties put up for sale over the past year, the average price of an apartment is about 85 million yen, and the average exclusive area is 59 sqm. On the other hand, the average price of a detached house is about 70 million yen, and the average floor area is 105 sqm.

Although a simple comparison, a detached house is calculated to be about 15 million yen cheaper and the living area is about 1.8 times larger.

Of course, apartments have advantages such as proximity to a station, management systems, shared facilities, and high asset value. On the other hand, detached houses have appeals such as spaciousness, independence, securing a parking space, and freedom in living styles.

Due to the widening price gap in recent years, the number of cases where people "planned to buy an apartment, but after reconsidering detached houses, chose a detached house" is likely to increase further in the future.

A change occurring throughout Tokyo, not just in specific areas

What is interesting is that this increase in demand for detached houses is not a phenomenon occurring only in specific areas.

Checking the number of sales by area within the 23 wards and suburban areas, the number of detached house sales is not increasing prominently only in specific wards or cities, but is increasing over a wide area.

If this were due to specific factors such as redevelopment or population influx, the increase in sales would be concentrated in some areas. However, since similar trends are actually seen throughout Tokyo, it is highly likely that the values and selection behavior of home buyers as a whole are changing.

This can be seen not simply as a regional factor, but as a structural change in the housing market of Tokyo as a whole, where "real demand seeking spaciousness is flowing into detached houses."

Polarization is progressing in the apartment market

Looking at the apartment market on the other hand, a more interesting change is occurring.

Source: Fukushima Soken

The map above shows the inventory trend of symbolic apartments (average price of 80 million yen or more).

Red plot: Inventory decrease