Northern Taiwan's Property Market Rapidly Declines, Approaching 'Blue Light'; New Projects See Supply Drop in June, Visitor Numbers Also Decrease

The 'Wind Vane' indicator for Northern Taiwan's new property market in June remains at the yellow-blue recession signal, with a significant drop in score from 36.5 last month to 33.2, approaching the bottom blue light. Tracking indicators show an increase in completed housing units, while the number of pre-sale projects and visitor groups has decreased.

Chen Bingchen, General Manager and Spokesperson of the Research Institute of the Exhibition, pointed out that the property market is unclear. After the completion of the 329 and 520 cases in the first half of the year, June entered a vacuum state. Northern Taiwan's pre-sale cases totaled only over 10 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 60 billion yuan from May. This is the lowest monthly volume since the beginning of 2019, worse than the epidemic, equivalent to returning to the state before the 2019 property market boom. Only the 30 billion yuan new case in the A20 redevelopment area of Zhongli District, Taoyuan City, topped the list, while other individual cases did not reach 20 billion yuan, including some small cases of less than 10 billion yuan, and developers' confidence was significantly reduced.

Although the number of completed housing units increased in June 2026, only over 100 units were newly released, mainly in the Xinyi District of Taipei City, with about 50 units of pre-sale redevelopment cases. After all, the completed housing cases, which were originally niche products, have not seen development prospects in the past two years. Due to the lack of flexibility in the project launch schedule and the need to launch immediately after completion, the data has fluctuated. In reality, developers have not planned to expand the volume.

On the demand side, tracking indicators such as the average number of visitor groups per week and the number of transactions have seen the honeymoon period of previous launches fade, with the average number of visitor groups per week revised downward to about 11-12 groups. In the already low-tide property market, the result of the Central Bank's Board of Directors meeting in June dashed hopes of policy easing. Currently, it is also the rainy season, and the weather is not helping, severely dampening the enthusiasm for house viewing.

Difficult sales have pushed the number of unsold cases close to 1,600, particularly in the Hsinchu area and New Taipei City, where the volume has increased significantly. The former has seen a wave of large-scale launches in the first half of this year, while the latter has been the leader in residential volume across Taiwan. However, there is no possibility of quick sales under the current market conditions, and the volume continues to accumulate, especially for second-tier brands and areas with high selling pressure.

Chen Bingchen stated that in the development of the property market, it is worth observing whether the central bank will adjust policies to balance mortgage burdens in response to possible U.S. rate hikes. However, by then, it will already be the end of the year, and as the election approaches, the government's attitude is likely to remain conservative to avoid touching the sensitive nerve of high housing prices. The effectiveness of upcoming major projects in the Nangang District, Banqiao District, Xindian District, Zhonghe District, Linkou District, Taishan District of Taipei and New Taipei City, as well as the Guishan District and Baoshan Township of Taoyuan and Hsinchu, remains to be seen.