Goldman Sachs Bullish on China AI Value Chain: 4 Trillion Dollar Market Potential and Global Allocation Imbalance Create Revaluation Opportunity

Goldman Sachs recently published a research report titled "Investment Strategy: Going Long on China's AI Value Chain," indicating that China's AI industry has formally entered the global investment spotlight. Goldman Sachs analyst Louis Mille believes that, with the combination of national large-scale support, increasing global demand, and structural capital rotation, China's AI has become one of the most attention-grabbing growth stories in today's technology sector.

Core Logic: Severe Mismatch Between Revenue Contribution and Capital Allocation The report points out that there is a significant value mismatch in the current market. According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, the market value of China's AI-related companies is approximately 4 trillion dollars, accounting for about 10% of the global AI market value and contributing about 16% of global AI-related revenue. However, by January 2026, global mutual funds have only allocated 1.2% of their technology sector investments to China. This gap between double-digit revenue share and extremely low capital allocation creates strong potential for revaluation, which is also the most important trading logic for Goldman Sachs' recommendation to go long on China's AI value chain. Hardware and Infrastructure Become the Core of the Trade Goldman Sachs emphasizes that this strategy differs from traditional China internet platform (such as KWEB) trading by focusing more on the complete AI supply chain. The "Goldman Sachs China AI Value Chain" (GSXACART) investment portfolio constructed by Goldman Sachs covers five major segments: power, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, models, and applications. Among these, hardware and infrastructure stand out due to the benefits of China's technology self-sufficiency policy. Goldman Sachs predicts that the potential economic benefits brought by AI, in terms of efficiency improvements and new profits, could be 50% to 100% higher than what is currently reflected in stock prices. Industry-End Data and Policy Support The growth in the hardware sector is reflected in specific data: Strong exports: Driven by AI demand, China's integrated circuit exports in May surged 111% year-on-year. Leaders expanding: Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) saw its first-quarter revenue increase by 445%, with its global share rising to 13%; ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is expected to achieve $500 billion in revenue by 2026, doubling its 2023 figures. Policy support: Reports indicate that China is planning a five-year plan of approximately 2 trillion yuan to build a nationwide AI data center network, which will directly drive demand for memory chips, semiconductor equipment, and power support. Market Outlook and Risk Warnings Although China's AI sector has recently outperformed other Chinese assets, it still lags significantly behind U.S. AI assets. Goldman Sachs warns that this strategy still faces risks, including the execution details of the 2 trillion yuan infrastructure plan, the speed of corporate profit realization, and the impact of the global trade environment on chip exports.