TrendForce: Long-term Contracts Cap Price Gains, Q3 Server DRAM Contract Prices Rise 13-18% QoQ

TrendForce announced today (9th) that server DRAM contract prices for the third quarter are expected to increase by 13-18% quarter-on-quarter, as some manufacturers raised quotes earlier in Q2 and several U.S.-based cloud service providers (CSPs) have signed multi-year long-term agreements (LTAs), limiting manufacturers' pricing flexibility. Although the rate of increase is moderating, manufacturers may continue to revise prices upward if supply-demand imbalances persist.

TrendForce stated that CPU supply shortages have affected server assembly schedules, causing DRAM inventory levels at U.S. CSPs to gradually rise in Q2. However, with CPU supply expected to ramp up from the second half of 2026 into 2027, server assembly volumes are anticipated to expand. Given that a supply shortage for server DRAM in 2027 is already evident, CSPs continue to aggressively increase demand.

Memory manufacturers began communicating their 2027 supply intentions to customers in late Q2. According to TrendForce’s preliminary estimates, the annual bit supply growth for RDIMMs is only around 15-20%, significantly lagging behind the growth in server CPU units. For RDIMM buyers, even if they have secured consumption volumes for the second half of 2026, there remains an incentive to build inventory in anticipation of 2027 supply shortages.

With some CSPs already having signed LTAs with manufacturers, TrendForce analyzes that starting from Q3 2026, the source of price increases for manufacturers’ server DRAM shipments will gradually shift to non-LTA customers and additional supplies provided to LTA customers through non-contractual arrangements. Overall server DRAM contract prices are expected to rise sequentially from the second half of 2026 through the second half of 2027, although the rate of increase will moderate.

Examining the supply mix across server module capacities, it reflects procurement cost management and CPU supply alignment. Since the first half of 2026, CSPs and OEMs have gradually adjusted their RDIMM configuration demands, partially shifting from 96/128GB to 32/64GB modules. This downgrading in specifications is expected to be gradually reflected in manufacturers’ shipment mix starting in Q3, leading to a quarter-on-quarter increase in the number of low-capacity modules shipped, while the previous trend of declining bit share in shipments will slow down.