Hong Kong AI Twin Giants Face Divergent Fates: Zhipu Maintains HK$900 Billion Market Cap While MiniMax Plunges Post-Unlock

Hong Kong's artificial intelligence sector has experienced significant volatility this month, as Zhipu (02513-HK) and MiniMax (00100-HK), hailed as the 'twin AI giants of Hong Kong stocks,' faced their first post-listing restricted share unlock on July 8 and 9, respectively. However, the two companies' stock performances have diverged dramatically.

As of the close on July 9, Zhipu's market capitalization surged to HK$906 billion, while MiniMax plummeted to HK$93.3 billion—just one-tenth of Zhipu's value. Combined, their market caps have erased approximately HK$740 billion from their peak levels.

The stark difference in unlock scale is the immediate trigger for the stock divergence. Zhipu unlocked 25.6816 million shares (5.76% of total shares) on July 8, with a market value exceeding HK$40 billion.

Despite selling pressure, Zhipu's stock price strengthened over consecutive days. It closed up 13.35% on July 8, and on July 9, a newly announced share placement raising approximately HK$31.41 billion boosted investor confidence. The stock closed at HK$2,032, securing its market cap at HK$906 billion.

In contrast, MiniMax unlocked 153 million shares on July 9—representing a massive 48.9% of its total shares—with a market value of around HK$55 billion. This massive supply of shares triggered a 17.98% plunge in its stock price, closing at HK$297.4. On the morning of July 10, both stocks continued to decline, with Zhipu briefly falling over 11% and MiniMax's drop widening to over 15%.

Analysts point to differing model strategies and ecosystem approaches as the core reason for the divergence. Zhipu focuses on the coding domain and an open-source strategy. Its GLM-5.2 model has performed strongly in international benchmarks and has built an ecosystem of over 4 million developers. Notably, 87% of China's top 100 AI companies have integrated its services.

Goldman Sachs assigned Zhipu a 'Neutral' rating but acknowledged it as the most competitive player, with its 12-month valuation already at a reasonable level.

MiniMax, on the other hand, specializes in multimodal AI. While its M3 model boasts high gross margins, 73% of its revenue comes from overseas markets, making it vulnerable to international policy fluctuations.

In response to mounting pressure, MiniMax's founder and CEO, Yan Junjie, issued an all-hands letter on July 10, announcing a new round of financing totaling HK$16 billion. He also pledged not to draw a salary until the company achieves AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and committed to donating 5% of his personal shares to team incentives and open-source communities.

Market observers believe the valuation logic has shifted from 'scarcity premium' to 'fundamentals-based pricing' post-unlock. Zhipu has demonstrated institutional investor appeal through its placement, while MiniMax must now continuously prove its commercialization metrics and the competitiveness of next-generation models like M3 Pro under pressure from financial investors reducing their stakes.