Wall Street Frenzy Over CXMT IPO! Dual Pricing Splits Market: STAR Market at $579.2B, Foreign Capital Bets $3.9T via Crypto Contracts

Latest data shows that Chinese semiconductor firm ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) was simultaneously priced under two different currencies and valuation systems last week, revealing the dual nature of semiconductor asset mania and anxiety in the AI era.

CXMT launched its new share subscription on the STAR Market this past Thursday (16th), with an issue price of 8.66 CNY per share (RMB, same below), corresponding to a market capitalization of 579.2 billion CNY and raising approximately 57.9 billion CNY—surpassing SMIC to become the largest IPO in STAR Market history and potentially the largest IPO in Asia this year. Offline institutional subscriptions were required to settle funds by 4:00 PM today (20th), while retail investors must ensure sufficient funds in their accounts by the same day.

Meanwhile, overseas capital, blocked by strict domestic access rules, has ignited a frenzy in the crypto derivatives market.

Trade.xyz launched a USDC-settled, up to 5x leveraged pre-IPO perpetual contract for CXMT, 'CXMT,' on Hyperliquid this past Tuesday (14th). The reference price of $5 surged to $8.64, implying a market cap of approximately 3.9 trillion CNY—nearly 7 times the IPO valuation. By last Friday (17th), it had pulled back to $6.94, but the premium remains staggering.

Kévin Net, portfolio manager at French top-tier asset manager Financiere de l'Echiquier, said: 'We definitely want to participate, but most global investors can't get in.'

The valuation split stems from divergent expectations. Morgan Stanley's team believes CXMT's market cap could reach several times the IPO level, while Citrini Research analyst Zephyr even forecasts a 10x surge on the first trading day, exceeding 5 trillion CNY. The bullish case is supported by explosive fundamentals. CXMT reported revenue of 61.799 billion CNY last year, up 155.6% year-on-year, and achieved its first annual profit of 1.87 billion CNY. In Q1 2026, revenue reached 50.8 billion CNY, more than 7x year-on-year growth, with net profit of 24.762 billion CNY already surpassing last year's full-year total. First-half 2026 revenue is projected at 110–120 billion CNY.

Its global DRAM market share rose from 3.97% in Q2 last year to 7.67% in Q4, making it the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer and weakening the triopoly dominance of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

SemiAnalysis predicts that by year-end, CXMT's wafer production capacity will reach approximately 350,000 wafers per month, approaching Micron's 385,000. By 2028, it aims for 500,000 wafers per month, capturing 17% of the global market, with HBM capacity reaching 100,000 wafers per month, accounting for 12% globally.

However, the static P/E ratio at issuance stands at 308x, four times the industry average of 76x. Based on an estimated 2026 profit of 100 billion CNY, the forward P/E is around 5.8x, comparable to Korean and U.S. peers.

MS Hwang, Research Director at Counterpoint, pointed out that sustaining a 3 trillion CNY market cap requires successful VCT transition by 2027 and subsequent technology node advancements. The current high premium includes leverage and FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment.

Currently, CXMT has secured a server DRAM supply agreement worth over 20 billion CNY from Tencent, with customers including Alibaba Cloud and ByteDance. However, HBM3 8-hi mass production yield remains a weakness, as producing one HBM unit consumes three times the capacity of standard DRAM, creating a resource allocation dilemma.

This '579.2 billion vs 3.9 trillion' pricing rift reflects both Wall Street's early bet on China's AI memory chip self-reliance and speculative overflow from constrained liquidity.