TrendForce Estimates July TV Panel Prices to Drop by $1-3; Q3 Notebook Panel Shipments May Decline by Over 15%

TrendForce released its late-July panel price forecast today (20th), maintaining its previous estimate of a $1–3 price drop across all TV panel sizes, while monitor and notebook panel prices remain flat. TrendForce forecasts that momentum for notebook panel shipments in the third quarter will decline significantly, potentially by more than 15%.

According to TrendForce, overall demand from major TV brands in Q3 may show quarter-on-quarter growth, but this demand is expected to be concentrated in August and September, meaning July will remain a relatively weak month for demand. Taking advantage of this soft demand period, brand customers are pressing panel manufacturers for price reductions.

TrendForce further notes that under slightly weaker demand conditions, panel manufacturers have become more flexible in their pricing stance, making it possible for them to offer minor price concessions on TV panels. As a result, the current forecast for July indicates a $1 decrease for 32-inch panels, a $2 decrease for 43-, 50-, and 55-inch panels, and a $3 decrease for 65- and 75-inch panels.

Regarding monitor panels, TrendForce reports that demand began weakening in July, with customers gradually adjusting their panel orders. Overall monitor panel demand is expected to decline by approximately 6% quarter-on-quarter. Despite the declining demand, panel manufacturers still face high cost pressures and are unwilling to make further price concessions.

Additionally, brand customers recognize that panel makers are under significant cost pressure and are willing to accept stable pricing in the short term. Therefore, for July, monitor panel prices are expected to stabilize across the board, reaching a mutually acceptable level for both buyers and sellers.

For notebook panels, TrendForce states that since the beginning of the year, unstable supply of key components in notebook systems has led to disrupted shipment schedules. Panel shipments have been heavily front-loaded in the first half of the year. Consequently, shipment momentum for notebook panels in Q3 is expected to decline sharply, with a potential drop exceeding 15%.

As panel manufacturers begin to feel clear pressure on notebook panel shipments, and given that cost pressures remain high, they are reluctant to aggressively lower prices. Brand customers, aware of the elevated cost pressures, are also willing to accept stable panel pricing in the short term. TrendForce observes that, based on current trends, notebook panel prices in July are expected to remain flat across all segments.