China's '15th Five-Year Plan' Aims to Expand Domestic Demand and Consumption, Targeting RMB 60 Trillion in Retail Sales

The State Council of China has recently officially issued the '15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption,' marking the first national-level five-year plan specifically dedicated to boosting consumption. It clearly outlines the macroeconomic transformation path for the next five years. According to an interpretation by China's state media, the People's Daily, this plan not only sets concrete quantitative targets but also symbolizes a deep structural shift in China's economic growth model—from industrialization-driven to consumption-led expansion and quality upgrading.

Core Figures: A Ten-Trillion-Yuan Increment

On the macroeconomic level, the most notable target in the plan is for China's total retail sales of consumer goods (social retail total) to reach approximately RMB 60 trillion by 2030. Compared to the performance at the end of the '14th Five-Year Plan,' China's social retail total is expected to surpass the RMB 50 trillion mark by 2025 (approximately RMB 50.1 trillion), meaning the Chinese consumer market will see a stable incremental space of about RMB 10 trillion during the '15th Five-Year Plan' period.

In terms of contribution to economic growth, the role of consumption as an 'anchor' has become increasingly significant. Data shows that during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, final consumption expenditure contributed an average of 58.8% to China's economic growth—10 percentage points higher than during the '13th Five-Year Plan' period. This provides a solid foundation for the macro-level goals set in the '15th Five-Year Plan.'

Structural Transformation: Service Consumption as the New Growth Engine

The plan emphasizes that the RMB 60 trillion social retail total is merely a 'baseline' figure, with the real growth potential lying in service consumption. Macro data indicates that China's consumption growth engine is shifting from goods to services. For example, in May 2026, overall retail sales declined by 0.6% year-on-year, while service retail sales grew by 5.4%, and cultural, sports, and leisure categories saw growth exceeding 10%.

Reports indicate that, in terms of actual purchasing power, China's social retail total has already reached 1.6 times that of the United States. However, there remains significant room for expansion in service consumption. Therefore, the plan places elderly care, childcare, culture and tourism, health, and sports at the core, aiming to steadily increase the share of household spending on services and achieve optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure.

Strategic Deployment: 28 Key Measures and 9 Special Columns

To ensure the achievement of macro goals, the plan outlines 28 key initiatives across six areas, including promoting service consumption, upgrading goods consumption, and cultivating new business models. Additionally, nine special columns have been established for key areas such as the silver economy, automotive consumption, and childcare services, proposing specific implementation measures.

Moreover, demographic changes and technological innovation are redefining the consumer market. By the end of 2025, the number of dogs and cats in urban China had exceeded 120 million, giving rise to a pet industry rapidly scaling toward the trillion-yuan level. Meanwhile, the penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is reducing the cost of personalized consumption through 'flexible manufacturing,' elevating consumption from 'meeting demand' to a new realm of 'creating demand.'