Trump's 10% Temporary Global Tariffs Expire Friday, White House Warns 'New Tariffs' Coming Soon

The 10% temporary global tariffs introduced by U.S. President Trump are set to expire on Friday (24th), and the White House has warned that new tariff measures are imminent. U.S. Trade Representative Greer announced on Tuesday (21st) that the government will 'soon' take new tariff actions. The measures could impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partner countries based on forced labor issues, potentially replacing the temporary measures that are about to expire and rebuilding the global tariff system that was overturned by the court earlier this year. Greer said in an interview with CNBC that the U.S. government plans to take action soon but cannot disclose a specific timeline as it needs to explain to Congress and other stakeholders first. The Trump administration has prepared a new round of tariffs for 60 trading partners, citing their failure to effectively prevent forced labor. Greer noted that these 60 economies collectively account for approximately 99% of U.S. foreign trade. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump's broad 'reciprocal tariffs' in February this year, Trump immediately imposed a 10% temporary tariff on all imported goods under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This measure will expire at 12:01 AM on Friday, Eastern Time, unless Congress intervenes, which currently seems unlikely. The market is therefore focused on how the Trump administration will fill the gap in tariff policy. Analysts expect the White House to use Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act as the legal basis for the new round of tariffs, imposing tariffs on related goods by investigating how various countries handle forced labor issues. Compared to the tariffs Trump previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which were ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court, Section 301 has been a long-standing U.S. trade tool with a potentially more solid legal foundation. In early June, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imported goods from 60 economies, citing the failure of these countries or regions to adequately enact or enforce regulations to combat forced labor. The USTR has also launched multiple Section 301 investigations, targeting potential overcapacity issues in the manufacturing industry. Greer stated that the U.S. already has laws prohibiting the trade of goods involving forced labor, but most countries do not have such laws, and even if they do, they have not truly enforced them. According to the USTR proposal, 16 economies, including Canada, the EU, Mexico, Taiwan, and the UK, which have fully or partially established systems to prohibit the import of goods involving forced labor, may face a 10% tariff; the remaining over 40 economies, including China, India, and Japan, may face a 12.5% tariff. These new tariffs could replace the soon-to-expire 10% temporary global tariffs and may run in parallel with other recent U.S. trade measures, potentially further increasing the actual tax burden on some goods. The EU has previously stated that imposing tariffs on its goods based on forced labor 'lacks justification'. Trade policy experts believe that the Trump administration is using existing trade regulations to gradually restore most of the global tariffs originally implemented under the IEEPA. Due to the stronger political justification of combating forced labor, even if the government changes in the future, the difficulty of withdrawing related tariffs may be higher. In addition to the global tariff layout, Trump has recently increased pressure on individual trading partners. On Monday, Trump signed a notice imposing a 50% tariff on multiple Canadian goods, including wine, dairy products, hockey sticks, and cement, citing Canada's discriminatory trade practices against multiple U.S. industries. This measure is implemented under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, which has been rarely used in nearly a century, and will not exempt Canadian goods entering the U.S. market under the USMCA. Some legal experts believe that Trump's use of Section 338, which has not been thoroughly reviewed by the court, may be to increase leverage over Canada in USMCA negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated on Tuesday that he had spoken with Trump, and both sides agreed to strengthen negotiations in the coming weeks to seek a possible agreement. However, Carney also emphasized that if the U.S. implements the tariff measures, Canada will evaluate 'all options'. Trade lawyer Dave Townsend believes that the U.S. increase in tariffs may be to prompt a deal between the U.S. and Canada, or to retaliate for failed negotiations, or both. The key lies in whether both sides will fall into a cycle of mutual escalation and retaliation. Greer is scheduled to visit Mexico from Wednesday to Friday to negotiate a joint review of the USMCA. In contrast, negotiations between the U.S. and Canada have progressed more slowly, and Carney did not indicate on Tuesday that he would visit Washington, D.C. in the near future. The U.S. measure to impose a 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods is scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. The U.S. accuses Brazil of unfair trade practices, but the measure has been strongly opposed by the Brazilian government and may become an important political issue before the Brazilian presidential election. Beef, coffee, some aircraft components, and certain goods not produced in the U.S. will be exempt. Nevertheless, the Brazil-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned that this measure will subject Brazil to one of the strictest U.S. market access conditions globally, with affected exports exceeding $11 billion. As new tariffs on Canada, Brazil, and dozens of trading partners are gradually implemented, Trump is once again using tariffs as a tool for negotiation and pressure. The market will next focus on whether the new measures trigger retaliation from trading partners and escalate global trade tensions again.