Will Slowing US AI Investment Affect Logistics? Cebu Pacific Sees No Impact, Air Freight to Remain Strong Through Next Year

Following months of AI-driven euphoria in global stock markets, there are growing expectations that major US cloud service providers may slow their AI-related capital expenditures. However, from the logistics perspective, there are currently no signs of such a slowdown. Freight forwarder Cebu Pacific (5609-TW) stated on the 21st, 'At least for now, we have not observed any deceleration in AI server-related shipments.' Air freight demand is expected to remain strong through next year.

Cebu Pacific's Chairman, Chien Wen-chun, indicated that there has been no weakening in server-related shipment momentum. He expects air freight volumes and prices to continue rising in August, adding, 'In principle, prices are unlikely to drop.' Taiwan's strategic role as an air freight hub connecting Southeast Asia to North America continues to support strong air cargo demand through next year.

According to Cebu Pacific, current air freight rates from Taiwan to the US West Coast stand at NT$220 per kilogram, and NT$240 per kilogram to the US East Coast. Urgent shipments related to AI can start from NT$300 per kilogram.

In contrast, sea freight conditions are relatively stable. Cebu Pacific forecasts that cargo volumes during the traditional peak season in the third quarter 'may not be as strong as expected,' due to pre-pulled shipments in June and July, which already reached pandemic-level high freight rates. Additionally, the strong pre-tariff shipment surge in the same period last year—before the US implemented reciprocal tariffs—has created a high base for year-on-year comparisons.

Given the volatility in sea freight markets, both shippers and freight forwarders are closely monitoring developments, making traditional peak and off-peak seasons less distinct and year-end trends difficult to predict.

Overall, Cebu Pacific sees the global supply chain entering a new phase of structural transformation. Chairman Chien Wen-chun stated that five forces—trade policies, geopolitical factors, sea freight supply, global trade flow restructuring, and AI infrastructure development—are reshaping global cargo flows and redefining the value of logistics services. As a result, competition among logistics providers is no longer just about transportation efficiency, but increasingly about the ability to help clients adapt to policy changes, manage supply chain risks, enhance operational resilience, and seize new opportunities arising from global supply chain reconfiguration.