US Launches 11th Consecutive Night of Strikes on Iran, International Oil Prices Surge 4%! US Secretary of State: Tehran Shows No Sincere Intent for Peace Talks

The US Central Command announced on Tuesday (21st, US Eastern Time) that it conducted strikes on targets inside Iran for the 11th consecutive night. The strikes targeted military command centers, maritime operations facilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage sites, and logistical infrastructure. The US stated the operation aims to 'further weaken Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.'

Amid escalating US-Iran military tensions and supply risks, international oil prices surged in early Wednesday (22nd, US Eastern Time) trading. Around 5:00 AM, July-dated Brent crude futures rose 3.8% to $87.56 per barrel, while near-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 3.5% to $94.20. Markets are repricing the 'supply disruption premium' due to Middle East instability.

At the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in the Philippines, US Secretary of State Rubio stated that Washington remains committed to diplomacy but harshly criticized Tehran for lacking sincerity in negotiations. 'If Iran is serious, we are serious. Otherwise, we will take necessary actions to defend our interests and those of our allies,' he said.

He emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and key commodity shipments, remains central to the bilateral standoff. He accused Iran of seeking control over the waterway, warning that 'compromise here would set an extremely dangerous precedent.'

Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid noted that Brent crude futures closed above $90 for the first time in over a month, signaling a return of stagflation concerns. Rising energy prices are fueling hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve. According to CME's FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike in July has risen to 24.1%, and the chance of at least a 25-basis-point hike by September has reached 69%.

ING pointed out that the CPC terminal in the Black Sea has halted intake of Kazakh crude due to tanker attacks. The terminal accounts for approximately 1.7 million barrels per day in June exports, and prolonged shutdowns will increase pressure for production cuts.