Market Pulls Back at Monthly MA! Don't Chase Google's Capex Rally—Trim Positions at This Level!

The market faced heavy resistance from upper moving averages, leading to a volatile pullback. Avoid chasing rallies on shrinking volume. Although a major international cloud giant unexpectedly upgraded its capital expenditure, providing temporary support, investors must maintain trading discipline during sharp short-term moves by trimming positions at highs and securing cash.

Taiwan Market Reclaims 45,000 Points Then Loses It—Monthly MA Resistance Plays Out as Expected

The Taiwan stock market briefly surged to 45,089 points this morning, but without sustained volume expansion, technical selling pressure emerged as the index approached the monthly moving average, causing a mid-session drop of over 400 points. The session closed slightly positive, lifted by heavyweight stocks, but the 45,000-point level was quickly lost. The GreTai market also rebounded, but faces dual resistance from the 10-day and monthly moving averages.

From options positioning, the weighted index finds support around 44,000 points. The ideal scenario is sideways consolidation in this range to allow for position digestion. Volume-light rallies are normal, but when the rebound is too rapid, investors should trim positions at resistance and secure cash.

Adjust at Monthly MA—Sector Rotation Shows Conviction, But No Need to Chase

The same principle applies to individual stocks. ABF substrate leader Unimicron (3037-TW) opened higher but quickly met resistance near the monthly MA. For investors with high position levels, this is a reasonable zone for staged profit-taking. Recently, optical communication stocks have rebounded noticeably, but this is more a valuation recovery after position digestion rather than a signal to fully chase higher prices. A disciplined approach means adjusting exposure during the rebound.

In contrast, cooling solutions player Auras (3017-TW) briefly touched its daily limit today. Though gains narrowed due to broader market volatility, it still closed up over 7%, advancing to its quarterly moving average. Reaching the quarterly line, short-term consolidation is natural. However, volume clearly expanded, signaling strong buyer interest. Strength doesn’t mean chasing every uptick—wait for consolidation, then assess whether the volume-price structure can sustain.

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Google Upgrades Capex—Long-Term AI Semiconductor Trend Remains Intact

Google parent Alphabet raised its 2026 capex forecast to $195–205 billion, reflecting strong corporate demand for AI computing and cloud resources. The market naturally worries whether rapid capex growth can translate into sufficient profits and cash flow, causing Alphabet’s after-hours stock to fluctuate. But from Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain perspective, cloud giants continuing to invest real capital signals that AI businesses have real demand and monetization foundations.

It’s still unclear whether the capex upgrade stems from expanding end-demand or supply chain price hikes. But regardless, the medium-to-long-term trends in AI semiconductors, ASICs, cooling, servers, and high-speed transmission remain unchanged. ASIC leader Faraday Technology (3443-TW) is still consolidating technically. Once position and technical indicators settle, it may restart a new uptrend.

When the market moves as expected, stick to trading discipline. Execute low-buy, high-sell tactics short-term, and long-term, focus on industries with real orders and growth momentum. Don’t get overly optimistic on a single day’s rise, nor lose direction during intraday swings. Download the [Chen Zhi-Lin Analyst App] to receive real-time insights instantly. Let data guide your rhythm, avoid risks, and lock in opportunities.

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Source: Chen Zhi-Lin Analyst / Kaixu Investment Advisory

The securities analyzed and recommended by our company involve no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, conduct careful evaluations, and assume investment risks.