Global Memory Giants to Unveil Earnings Next Week

Next week marks a pivotal moment for the global semiconductor market as memory leaders SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Kioxia prepare to unveil their latest quarterly financial results. Amid growing market skepticism over the sustainability of artificial intelligence (AI) investments and the reliability of long-term supply agreements (LTAs), these earnings reports will serve as a crucial test of the memory giants’ profitability in this phase of the industry cycle.

SK Hynix: HBM Leadership Drives Revenue Surge

SK Hynix is scheduled to release its Q2 earnings on July 29. Bolstered by rising average selling prices (ASP) for DRAM and NAND flash memory, the market expects revenue growth to reach its highest level since 2010.

According to Visible Alpha forecasts, Q2 revenue could hit $52 billion, a 260% year-on-year increase. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) performance is particularly critical, with revenue projected to grow 32% to $6.1 billion.

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung stated that to meet the rapid growth of AI, memory supply constraints could persist beyond 2030.

Samsung Electronics: Profit Jumps 18-Fold Amid Market Skepticism

Samsung will release its full Q2 earnings report on July 30. Based on preliminary data, Samsung’s Q2 revenue reached 171 trillion Korean won (approximately $116.6 billion), with operating profit soaring 18-fold year-on-year, setting a new quarterly record. Despite these strong results, the company’s stock price plunged over 7% the day after the preliminary report was released.

Analysts suggest this reflects a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' mentality among investors, coupled with concerns that tech giants may scale back AI infrastructure spending, raising doubts about the sustainability of high demand.

Kioxia: Profit Doubles Amid Analyst Divergence

Japan’s flash memory leader, Kioxia, will release its earnings on July 31. Market expectations indicate that quarterly profit could double compared to the previous quarter. Despite recent stock volatility, Kazuyoshi Saito, Senior Analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities, maintains that the company’s fundamentals remain unchanged, with strong demand prospects driven by AI.

However, Yukio Mitsuishi, Portfolio Manager at Aizu Securities, takes a more cautious stance, predicting that Kioxia’s weak performance may continue into late August.

Industry Warnings and Optimistic Outlooks

As the memory boom continues, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in its annual economic report that phased shortages in the AI supply chain could amplify the risks of overinvestment. Companies locking in capacity through long-term contracts may face higher risks during demand fluctuations.

Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore remains optimistic, calling the current stock weakness a 'buying opportunity' and forecasting that memory prices in Q3 will rise at least 25% from the previous quarter. He believes supply shortages are highly likely to persist until 2028.