Is This the Final Golden Opportunity? TSMC, Winbond, Largan, and Suncom

I. Today's Market Highlights (Short-Term Structure)

Index Performance

Opened lower, oscillated throughout the day, and closed down 20 points at 43,634.

Dropped as much as 685 points intraday, hitting a low of 42,969 before stabilizing and recovering.

Volume and Positioning

Trading volume declined to NT$719.5 billion, indicating strong market caution.

Buy-side activity remained conservative, but willingness to sell aggressively also decreased (a 'weak equilibrium' structure).

Key Turning Points

U.S. temporarily halts airstrikes on Iran → Oil prices retreat

U.S. stock index futures strengthen (NASDAQ futures +1%)

Government-backed funds and institutional investors buying the dip → Rapid recovery in index

II. Short-Term Influencing Factors (Market Uncertainty)

Policy and Event Risks

FOMC interest rate decision (July 28–29)

Tech giants' earnings week (Apple / Amazon / Microsoft / Meta)

Market Structural Pressures

Resurgence of AI monetization concerns (capital expenditure vs. profit return)

Korean market deleveraging → Global risk asset volatility

Asian currencies depreciating → Foreign investor selling pressure

Short-Term Conclusion

Negative factors not yet fully priced in

Index enters a 'consolidation and range-bound' phase

III. Technical Analysis and Range Outlook

Downside Support

40,000–42,000 points: Strong defense zone (policy + capital support)

Upside Resistance

45,000–46,000 points: Short-term resistance zone

Range Conclusion

Short-term range maintained at 42K–46K

Focus shifts to: Stock rotation > Index trend

IV. Medium-to-Long-Term Fundamentals (Core Bullish Thesis)

Economic Growth Upgraded

Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER): 2026 GDP → 10.35%

Academia Sinica: 10.16%

Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER): 10.38% (most optimistic)

Growth Drivers

AI demand surge (exports)

Semiconductor investment expansion

Domestic demand warming up

Corporate earnings upgrades

Market estimates:

Fubon Securities: +51.1%

Allianz Global Investors: +55%

Uni-President Investment Trust: +57%

V. AI Industry Trends (Long-Term Growth Catalyst)

Industry Assessment

NVIDIA's Jensen Huang: 'This time is different'

AI demand represents structural growth (not cyclical)

Next 10-Year Outlook

Semiconductor industry size → 5 to 10x growth

AI infrastructure still in 'early stage'

Capital Expenditure Scale

Hyperscalers (AWS / Google / Microsoft / Meta)

Annual investment: Hundreds of billions of USD

Total AI investment projected at over NT$20 trillion

VI. AI Supply Chain Beneficiaries

Cooling / Power

Liquid cooling, immersion cooling

High-wattage power supply units (PSUs)

High-Speed Transmission / Optical Communication

CPO / Silicon photonics (mainstream by 2027–2028)

High-speed switches, optical components

ASIC / Custom Chips

AWS Trainium, Google TPU

Taiwan firms securing orders: NRE + Turnkey mass production

Materials and Components

ABF substrates, CCL

Memory (DDR4/5, SLC NAND)

Power management ICs

Advanced Packaging

CoWoS / FOPLP

Packaging equipment and automation

VII. Liquidity and Positioning Advantages

Liquidity Momentum

M1B YoY growth > M2 → Liquidity-driven market underway

Taiwan's excess savings: ~NT$9 trillion

Supporting Forces

Government-backed funds ('National Team')

Investment trusts / ETFs expanding continuously

Asian financial center capital repatriation

Long-Term Target

Taiwan stock market could reach 50,000–55,000 points

VIII. Potential Sectors and Watchlist

Memory

Winbond (2344-TW), Nanya Technology (2408-TW), ADATA (3260-TW), Transcend (2451-TW)

Optics / CPO

United Power (3081-TW), Suncom (3363-TW), Powertech (3163-TW), HC SemiTek (4979-TW)

Networking / Optical Communication

D-Link (2332-TW), T-Star (6426-TW), Eastone Optical (6588-TW)

High-End Manufacturing / Equipment

Vantone (6187-TW), Quanta Precision (6664-TW)

Traditional Sector Turnaround

HIWIN (2049-TW), Bigtrend (4576-TW)

Passive Components (Deep Rebound)

Yageo (2327-TW), Walsin Technology (2492-TW), Sunlord Electronics (6173-TW)

IX. Investment Strategy Recommendations

Core Principles

Buy on dips, not on rallies

Gradual positioning, strict risk control

Short-Term Strategy

Use volatility pullbacks to find entry points

Focus on stocks with 'fundamental support'

Medium-to-Long-Term Mindset

Capitalize on long-term AI trends

Ignore short-term noise (war / interest rates / exchange rates)

Key Mindset

'Pullbacks are opportunities, not risks'

Truly strong stocks will emerge during consolidation

Summary

Short-term: Range-bound consolidation (42K–46K)

Medium-term: AI-driven corporate earnings upgrades

Long-term: Dual engine of capital + industry → Bullish trend intact

One-liner Conclusion:

Position amidst noise, profit from trends. Taiwan's long-term bullish structure remains unchanged—'stock selection' is the key to success.

Don't let fear hinder your wealth growth.

The biggest risk in investing isn't volatility,

but seeing the trend yet failing to act.

Missing the opportunity when it arrives.

Choosing the right sector → More important than chasing news

Timing → More critical than guessing daily highs and lows

AI long-term bullish trend unchanged

Taiwan stocks offer sweet entry points on pullbacks

After position unwinding, the real 'sweet spot' emerges

Low-cost 'Buy 1 Get 3' strategy to turn the tide

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Source: Analyst Chen Hsueh-Chin, Luen Yuan Securities Investment Advisory

The securities recommended and analyzed by our company have no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, conduct careful evaluations, and assume investment risks.