Bull Market Bets on Apple to Save U.S. Stocks! Options Predict Post-Earnings Record High, Share Price May Swing Nearly 4%

U.S. stocks have been stuck in a consolidation phase for the past two months, with rising U.S. Treasury yields adding pressure. The market received no boost from recent earnings reports by Alphabet (GOOGL-US) and Tesla (TSLA-US), leaving investors cautious. Now, all eyes are on Apple (AAPL-US), which will release its earnings after Thursday’s market close. Apple is the only company among the top 10 by market cap in the S&P 500 still trading close to its all-time high.

After seven months of stagnation, Apple’s stock has rebounded 20% from its late-June lows, now just under $2 away from the record high set just over a week ago. Options market data shows investors betting this bullish momentum will continue. Large traders are buying in-the-money call options, while speculative funds are hoping Apple hits a new high by this Friday.

According to SpotGamma, Apple’s options premiums totaled $590 million last Friday, with $442 million coming from calls. ThinkOrSwim data shows traders bought nearly 560,000 call contracts, significantly more than the approximately 332,000 put contracts.

More notably, current options pricing implies a nearly 4% price swing after Apple’s earnings announcement—far exceeding the average post-earnings move of about 1% over the past year. Nigam Arora, founder of The Arora Report, said, “The probability that Apple stabilizes the market this week is quite high.” Unlike some of its tech peers, Apple has not committed hundreds of billions of dollars to AI capital expenditures, leading investors to view it increasingly as a defensive stock.

The largest single trade last Friday involved a $2.6 million position in August-dated call options with a $280 strike price. This trade has a delta close to 1, meaning its price moves almost in lockstep with Apple’s stock—possibly used by investors as a substitute for direct share ownership.

Among options expiring this Friday, the $320 strike price has the highest open interest, with 13,000 call contracts and 5,000 puts, suggesting investors believe last week’s lows will hold even if earnings don’t drive further upside.

The most actively traded contract that day was the $300 strike put, with 7,500 contracts traded, but total premiums amounted to only $374,000. The second most active was the $340 strike call, with 5,000 contracts and total premiums reaching $2.3 million. That call option closed at $4.25 last Friday, meaning buyers are betting Apple’s stock will rise at least 3.4%, surpassing the $335 all-time high, to become profitable.

Whether the market can break out of its recent slump may hinge on Apple’s earnings report.