AI Servers Continue to Squeeze Supply! BofA Revises DRAM Price Hike Forecast: Q3 Contract Prices May Surge 30-40%

According to BofA Global Research's latest channel survey conducted in late July, the momentum behind memory price hikes is shifting from 'spot market pulses' to 'quarterly contracts.' More second-tier OEMs and module manufacturers have already accepted July PC DRAM contract prices that are 15-20% higher than June levels. DRAM prices in Q3 are expected to nearly double, with average selling prices potentially rising 30-40%—significantly higher than TrendForce's earlier forecast of 13-18%.

The key development is not the spot price itself, but downstream buyers incorporating these higher prices into procurement budgets. According to BofA's survey, 16Gb DDR5 spot prices are around $50, while DDR4 spot prices are approximately $80 (non-public market averages). Contract prices for 64GB server modules have surpassed $1,000, with DDR5 versions reaching around $1,400.

Price increases are occurring simultaneously across PC, server, and high-end DRAM segments, primarily because HBM and high-capacity server DRAM continue to absorb wafer production capacity, squeezing out standard PC DRAM and some DDR4 products.

Alphabet, Google's parent company, reported an 82% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue for Q2 2024, with a backlog of $514 billion. The company has raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance from $180-190 billion to $195-205 billion and reaffirmed plans for a 'significant increase' in 2027. BofA's model estimates Alphabet's capital spending this year at approximately $199.5 billion.

Based on BofA's assumptions, memory procurement volumes could increase by at least 50% annually by 2027. This explains why Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are highly sensitive to cloud vendors' capital expenditure forecasts.

According to South Korea's customs data, the country's export value for the first 20 days of July reached $54.9 billion, up 52.3% year-on-year. Semiconductor exports totaled $22.1 billion, surging 180.6% year-on-year and accounting for 40.3% of total exports.

Samsung Electronics is scheduled to hold its Q2 earnings call this Thursday (30th), with market attention focused on whether it will announce a large-scale share buyback or advance part of its 2026 dividend payout.

For the memory sector, price hikes represent fundamentals, AI capital spending supports demand, and buybacks/dividends boost sentiment. While this triple combination increases investor attention, it cannot replace actual order volumes and margin realization.

BofA identifies two key factors for DRAM price sustainability. First, its estimate of nearly $300 billion in Alphabet's 2027 capital spending is critical; if cloud vendors slow data center construction, procurement timelines could stretch. Second, DRAM average price growth is expected to decelerate from 53% in Q2 to 21% in Q3 and 7% in Q4. While contract prices exceeding expectations enhance manufacturers' earnings leverage, they do not insulate valuations in Korea's 'strong fundamentals, high-leverage volatility' market environment.