What Will Meta Say in Its Earnings Call? Traders Bet 90% on This Keyword

Meta (META-US) is scheduled to release its earnings after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday (29th). Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are betting that the company's management will focus on cloud computing, Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, and in-house chips during the earnings call, while possibly avoiding policy controversies such as children's use of social media.

Kalshi operates a 'mentions market' that allows traders to bet on whether specific words will be mentioned during earnings calls or public speeches. According to current trading prices, the market assigns a 90% probability that Meta's management will mention 'cloud'—the highest among all keywords.

Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Meta is developing a cloud infrastructure business, planning to sell raw computing power to external customers. Meta has long invested heavily in building artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. If it formally enters the cloud market, it could generate revenue from idle computing capacity and compete directly with Amazon (AMZN-US) AWS, Microsoft (MSFT-US) Azure, and Google Cloud.

Traders also believe there is a 74% chance Meta will mention its smart glasses partner 'Ray-Ban.' Last month, Meta launched a lower-priced new model of smart glasses with EssilorLuxottica, the parent company of Ray-Ban, signaling that wearable devices remain a key part of the company's strategy to expand its AI hardware ecosystem.

Regarding in-house chips, the market is betting on a 61% chance that Meta will use the term 'silicon.' In contrast, the probability of mentioning 'Hyperion' is only 27%. Hyperion is Meta's large-scale data center project in rural Louisiana, a key initiative in expanding its AI computing capabilities.

Traders expect Meta to avoid discussing social media policy. The UK has become the latest country to consider banning children from using social media, but the probability that Meta will mention 'age verification' during the call is only 15%.

Additionally, the probability that Meta will mention 'prediction market' or 'Kalshi' is only 20%. Previous reports indicated that CEO Mark Zuckerberg has asked employees to develop a prediction market platform, and Meta had previously discussed acquiring Kalshi.

However, Kalshi's probabilities reflect trader bets, not Meta's official agenda. The true key factors that will drive Meta's stock price after the earnings report remain AI capital expenditures, advertising growth, data center plans, and when these investments will translate into revenue and profit.