Yesterday, Professor Qinglong mentioned that MediaTek (2454-TW) is the top rebound candidate, and today the stock surged significantly. While the market was speculating on Broadcom's strong performance, we had already sold our positions at higher levels. MediaTek’s fundamentals are solid, and the lower the stock price goes, the more optimistic I become. Let’s analyze this in detail today.

First, let’s review the published figures. MediaTek (2454-TW) reported June 2026 revenue of NT$58.012 billion, up 22.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. Second-quarter revenue reached NT$152.18 billion, up approximately 2% quarter-on-quarter and exceeding the company’s initial financial forecast range. Cumulative revenue for the first six months of 2026 totaled NT$301.333 billion, nearly flat compared to the same period last year. Although the smartphone market has not fully recovered, flagship and mid-to-high-end chips, connectivity, and automotive products continue to support the company’s core business.

In the short term, weak smartphone demand remains a challenge. The Chinese mid-to-low-end smartphone market is still adjusting, and some customers pulled forward orders in Q2. Institutional analysts estimate that Q3 revenue may decline slightly, potentially marking the low point of this transition period. MediaTek’s next-generation 2nm flagship smartphone chip is expected to contribute more significantly only later, so the current stock correction mainly reflects smartphone-related noise.

What the market is now most focused on is MediaTek’s entry into Google’s cloud AI chip program. In simple terms, Google not only purchases NVIDIA chips but also continues developing its own TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) for AI training and inference. MediaTek (2454-TW) is assisting clients with chip design, advanced packaging, and mass production, evolving from a smartphone chip supplier into a strategic AI chip partner for major cloud customers.

The 3nm cloud AI chip is expected to begin volume production in Q4 2026, with the 2nm product line progressing in parallel. Google has started offering its AI systems to external clients and continues to increase data center investments, indicating that demand extends beyond internal use and opens up new revenue opportunities through external sales. If mass production proceeds smoothly, MediaTek’s revenue structure will undergo a significant transformation.

Production capacity planning also signals growing scale. Institutional estimates suggest that MediaTek’s allocation of advanced packaging capacity at TSMC could rise from approximately 1.5% in 2026 to around 7.3% in 2027. Another forecast indicates that cloud AI chip revenue could surpass $10 billion in 2027, becoming one of the company’s primary growth drivers. These are still projections, and final outcomes will depend on substrate supply, packaging yield, and customer pull-in.

Beyond the Google project, MediaTek (2454-TW) is set to launch an AI PC platform developed with NVIDIA into branded products in the second half of the year. This collaboration brings MediaTek’s expertise in low-power computing, high-speed connectivity, and system integration into higher-end AI devices. Combined with automotive, networking, and various edge computing products, the company’s growth drivers are now more diversified than its historical reliance on smartphones.

Looking ahead, three key factors will shape MediaTek’s trajectory: Q3 smartphone demand, Q4 3nm cloud AI chip volume production, and 2027 2nm project and packaging capacity. If the smartphone business maintains profitability while cloud AI chips take over as the next growth engine, the growth outlook will become clearer. However, if production or yield falls short of expectations, stock volatility will increase. To receive real-time alerts on which stocks to buy at low levels, join Professor Qinglong’s official LINE account, enter @ai8085, or click the link below. Free trading signals (CALLs) are provided during and after market hours to help you master the present and see the future.

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Source: Analyst Cai Qinglong – Moore Investment Advisory

The securities recommended by our company involve no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, conduct careful evaluations, and assume investment risks accordingly.

FACT BOX

  • Source: PR Times
  • Category: Survey
  • Organizations: Google