Taiwan Stock Market Plunges into Historical Oversold Zone! State-Backed Funds Enter to Support, Is a Comeback Signal Here?

Negative FOMC news has been fully priced in, triggering a dramatic shakeout in Taiwan's stock market! Margin balances plunged to a record low in a single day, maintenance margins hit extreme lows, and market positions have entered a historical oversold zone. As government-affiliated institutions pour in heavy funds to support the market and major institutional investors take over, the defense of the six-month moving average has officially begun—has the signal for a bottom formation and rebound arrived?

〈FOMC Holds Rates Steady: Taiwan Stocks Rebound 1,000 Points Intraday Before Closing Lower〉

The U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Taiwan stocks quickly absorbed the news impact in early trading, rebounded after retesting the six-month moving average, and surged as high as 41,155 points—an intraday gain of over 1,000 points. However, late-session liquidity adjustments and renewed profit-taking pressure from higher levels caused the market to close down 105 points, losing the 40,000-point psychological level. Trading value surged to NT$1.1 trillion. TSMC (2330-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW), and Delta Electronics (2308-TW) maintained relative strength, while the GreTai Securities Market Index and small-to-mid cap stocks faced clear pressure. This indicates that although market confidence is beginning to recover, funds remain concentrated in large-cap stocks and have not yet broadly diversified.

〈Margin Balances Drop Over NT$52 Billion in One Day: Positions Enter Historical Oversold Zone〉

From a positioning perspective, margin balances dropped to NT$507.011 billion yesterday, a single-day decline of NT$38.522 billion. Combined margin reductions across listed and OTC markets exceeded NT$52 billion, indicating rapid deleveraging of high-leverage positions. Today's market movement aligns with Analyst Zhilin Chen's forecast from yesterday. Core holdings favored by active ETFs and institutional investors became the first focus of technical recovery. Yageo (2327-TW) saw strong volume-based buying, while MediaTek (2454-TW), Creative Electronics (3443-TW), Unimicron (3037-TW), and TTM Technologies (2383-TW) simultaneously received capital inflows. Entering an oversold zone does not mean the index will immediately bottom out, but it suggests the market is gradually approaching a consolidation bottom area. The key now is to observe whether a proper position handover can occur near the six-month moving average—not to chase rallies impulsively.

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〈Unimicron Expands Capital Expenditure: Strategy Remains Focused on Large-Cap Stocks〉

Unimicron (3037-TW) has raised its capital expenditure for this year from NT$34 billion to NT$53.7 billion. The company continues to expand its high-end ABF substrate and AI-related production capacity. Related equipment demand will extend through the supply chain, making key equipment supplier Chang Guang (7795-TW) worth continued tracking. Market confidence is still being rebuilt, and liquidity concerns have not yet fully dissipated. Therefore, portfolio allocation should still prioritize large-cap stocks over small-to-mid caps. Only after confirming the six-month moving average is firmly held and the rebound structure broadens should funds gradually shift toward individual stocks supported by fundamentals and industry trends. Investors are invited to download the 【Analyst Chen Zhilin APP】—real-time information is shared第一时间 within the APP, helping you master market timing with data. The 'Margin Position Risk Watchlist' is updated weekly to help you avoid risks and capture opportunities.

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