After a sharp decline, the Taiwanese stock market has rebounded quickly, and market sentiment has shifted from panic to the imagination of 'Can we challenge 50,000 points in August?' However, at this stage, it is more important to confirm whether the rebound can turn into a real trend rather than rushing to predict the high point. TSMC, after hitting a stop high last Friday, showed a pullback, forming a pregnancy line in the short term. Although the overall market rose by more than 200 points and 63 stocks hit stop highs, the trading volume was approximately 84.45 billion yuan and did not show a clear increase, indicating that the buying enthusiasm is still limited. Therefore, I rather expect the index to adjust appropriately and retest the support around 42,000 points. If a solid W-bottom is formed, combined with PMI, non-farm payrolls, and corporate earnings, the market has the potential to last longer.
The real focus of this market is the obvious cooling of funds. The margin balance has decreased from a high of 631.3 billion yuan to 507.4 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 130 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 19.6%. Compared to the overall market's wave decline of about 8%, it represents that the leveraged funds have undergone a clear washout. This is also why I do not want the market to attack without any adjustment, because the rebound is too fast, and the margin may also flow back quickly, thus destroying the just-improved funds. In the future, to judge whether the market has truly bottomed out, I will only look at three things: whether the price can hold the support, whether the volume can expand during the upward attack, and whether the mainstream group can continue its strength.
The mainstream of the market is gradually emerging. MediaTek, Largan Precision, Chips, Nan Ya Plastics, GigaByte, Wistron, Chinalco, and Chialun have taken turns to strengthen, from AI servers, cooling, memory, passive components to data center infrastructure construction, all of which can be seen as funds returning. This once again illustrates that after a big drop, what you should really look for is not the stocks that have dropped the most, but those with a low base period, a more reasonable P/E ratio, a low margin usage rate, and basic support. Some high-valued groups have seen corrections of 40-50% in the previous wave, but relatively anti-drop AI, cooling, and some CPO stocks, once the market rebounds, the recovery speed is often faster. Rather than sticking to the heavily injured stocks, it is better to take advantage of the rebound to re-examine the efficiency of funds and eliminate the weak to strengthen the strong.
However, the last key to determining how far this rebound can go is still foreign capital and the overall capital market. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to stay high, high-valued technology stocks will continue to face pressure; if the New Taiwan dollar cannot strengthen, it also represents that the momentum of foreign capital returning may be limited. Therefore, in addition to looking at prices, volume, and mainstream, you should also simultaneously observe whether foreign capital is continuously buying and whether the New Taiwan dollar is entering an appreciation trend. If the yield falls, the New Taiwan dollar strengthens, foreign capital stabilizes, and semiconductor restocking and AI capital expenditure support, the Taiwanese stock market still has the conditions to attack high points in the medium and long term. Strategically, it is not advisable to lose control and chase prices due to a sharp rise; it is better to take profits in batches, and after a successful retest, redeploy, in order to truly cross the volatility.
Too awesome! At the end of July, I entered 00631L with members and it surged 17% in two days! Isn't it awesome!
However, while celebrating, the decline in the Taiwanese stock market was indeed a nightmare for most people. Passive components, silicon wafers, substrates, and memory were either halved or severely injured on the ground. Fortunately, I had already cleared out the passive components and memory I bought in June, all making more than a 100% profit to exit, and avoided this decline. After the operation was made public in the video, many people told me it was too late to join my membership.
I heard your voices. This time, I will launch a big counterattack plan for those who are trapped in passive components, silicon wafers, substrates, and memory. If you join my membership, I will use my corporate trading mindset to replicate my performance in passive components and memory, allowing you to buy low and sell high in a round-trip operation.
For example, using the method I publicly disclosed today with GigaByte, operating 3 times, wouldn't you have 900 yuan? Wouldn't you make back the money you lost? Now, the only question is: do you believe in my ability?
My operations have been completely open, and the amazing profits I have created. Isn't that enough to make you believe?
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- Source: PR Times
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