Wall Street Goes Crazy for Prediction Markets! Polymarket Valuation Set to Double in Under a Year, Aiming to Surpass $20 Billion

Prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking to raise approximately $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion, and has already initiated preliminary discussions with potential investors. If the deal proceeds smoothly, its valuation would more than double from the $9 billion level in October 2025, underscoring the rapid growth of the prediction market sector and rising investor enthusiasm for platforms enabling bets on elections, sports, and other real-world events.

According to foreign media reports on Tuesday (April 4), insiders revealed that Polymarket only completed another funding round in April this year, at a valuation of $15 billion, bringing in hedge fund D.E. Shaw and venture capital firm G Squared as new investors. Existing shareholders SV Angel, Dragonfly, and Valor Equity Partners also participated in the capital increase, along with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) investing $600 million, making the total funding raised in this round approximately $1 billion.

Polymarket declined to comment on the latest fundraising plans, and D.E. Shaw and G Squared have not responded to inquiries. Headquartered in New York, D.E. Shaw manages over $100 billion in assets and is one of the earliest large-scale investment institutions to adopt algorithmic trading. The venture arm led by Steve Cohen at Point72 Asset Management previously invested in Polymarket.

Annual Revenue Surpasses $1.2 Billion – Valuation Jumps Three Levels in Months

Led by CEO Shayne Coplan, Polymarket enables users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events and enhances platform liquidity through major trading firms. Since the April fundraising, Polymarket has officially launched its platform in the U.S., with annualized revenue tripling to over $1.2 billion.

The World Cup held in June and July also boosted trading volumes in prediction markets. From a $9 billion valuation in October 2025, rising to $15 billion in April this year, and now aiming to exceed $20 billion in this latest round, Polymarket’s valuation has made a three-tier jump in less than a year.

However, its main competitor, Kalshi, is also expanding rapidly. Kalshi announced in May this year that it had completed a new funding round with a valuation reaching $22 billion, already surpassing the level Polymarket is currently targeting. Due to operational and legal issues affecting Polymarket, Kalshi’s growth pace has clearly taken the lead since the beginning of the year. According to user-aggregated data from Dune Analytics, Kalshi’s trading volume last month was three times that of Polymarket.

Trading Volume Overtaken by Kalshi – Regulatory Investigation Looms Over Fundraising

In addition to competitive pressure, Polymarket is also under investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding its social media marketing campaigns. Previous reports accused the company of promoting misleading marketing content. Polymarket previously stated it had conducted an audit of its current promotional materials to ensure compliance with company standards and relevant regulatory and legal disclosure requirements.

To support its U.S. business expansion, Polymarket has recently hired several senior executives. Travis VanderZanden, who previously served as Chief Operating Officer at ride-hailing platform Lyft and later led Uber’s international growth initiatives, has relocated from Miami to New York to serve as Polymarket’s Head of Growth and oversee marketing operations.

Polymarket has also brought on engineer Hayk Mkrtchyan, who helped lead the development of the New York Stock Exchange’s trading technology platform Pillar, to lead the development of its U.S. exchange. Jonathan Mendelson, a former member of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), joined last year as Senior Strategy Officer.

Rapid growth in annualized revenue and Wall Street capital inflows provide support for Polymarket’s pursuit of a valuation exceeding $20 billion. However, Kalshi’s significantly larger trading volume and the ongoing regulatory investigation could still influence how investors assess the viability of this fundraising round and the reasonableness of its valuation.