Micron Challenges for Global No. 2! DRAM Market Share Rises to 25%, CXMT's Expansion in China Raises Concerns

The Barron's Weekly reported that Micron Technology (MU-US) surged 7.62% on Tuesday, closing at $892.67 per share, with intraday highs reaching $902.43, up 8.8%. Latest data shows Micron continues to expand its global DRAM market presence, with revenue share approaching that of SK Hynix. However, the rapid rise of Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is introducing new competitive uncertainties.

According to Counterpoint Research, Micron's Q2 DRAM revenue share rose from 22% in Q1 to 25%. DRAM accounts for nearly 80% of Micron's total revenue, making market share gains highly significant for its financial performance.

The gap between Micron and second-place SK Hynix has now clearly narrowed. SK Hynix held 26% market share in Q2, while Samsung Electronics maintained its lead with 39%.

Neil Shah, Vice President at Counterpoint Research, noted that Micron's DRAM revenue has grown nearly fivefold compared to Q2 2025, putting it in a strong position to surpass SK Hynix and claim the global No. 2 spot. The key to future competition lies in whether suppliers can secure sufficient production capacity to capitalize on rising memory demand and pricing.

However, Micron is not the only player seeing rapid market share growth. CXMT captured approximately 7% of the global DRAM market in Q2, an increase of over eight times year-on-year, making its expansion pace impossible to ignore.

Shah believes that if CXMT further enhances its production capacity and technical capabilities, it could not only meet domestic Chinese demand but also gradually enter the supply chains of PC manufacturers and international tier-one customers. Its global market share could look dramatically different within a year. Market attention has already shifted from whether CXMT can enter the global top three to when it will achieve that milestone.

Currently, CXMT primarily focuses on traditional DRAM but has begun targeting high-bandwidth memory (HBM), essential for AI servers. Research firm SemiAnalysis estimates that CXMT's share of global HBM wafer supply could rise from 1% in 2025 to 12% by 2028.

Despite continued capacity expansion by Chinese competitors, Bank of America Global Research analyst Vivek Arya remains bullish on Micron. He argues that Micron's recent stock correction reflects investors front-running a potential future industry downturn, not a deterioration in the company's fundamentals.

Arya points out that even under a more pessimistic scenario, Micron's earnings per share (EPS) could exceed $100, far surpassing the previous memory boom peak of around $12 in 2018. Additionally, Micron is signing an increasing number of multi-year contracts with customers, improving supply-demand visibility and reducing the risk of sharp memory price fluctuations.

AI demand also provides strong support. Arya notes that GPU-HBM adoption rates remain near historical highs, and despite rising component costs, major cloud service providers continue to expand capital expenditures, indicating that semiconductor and memory suppliers retain some pricing power.

Regarding the threat from CXMT, Bank of America notes that while the company is aggressively expanding capacity—targeting low double-digit percentages of global wafer output—its current product focus remains on consumer and standard DRAM, which does not fully overlap with Micron's high-end AI memory products like HBM3E and HBM4.

Moreover, it remains uncertain whether U.S. companies will be permitted to procure CXMT products. With AI infrastructure expansion continuing in the U.S. and relatively limited competition in advanced HBM, Bank of America believes Micron still holds a growth advantage.

Arya reiterated his 'Buy' rating on Micron, maintaining a $1,550 price target. Micron's stock has risen 213% year-to-date as of Tuesday's close and surged nearly 719% over the past 12 months. However, it has pulled back about 12% over the past month, reflecting market optimism about AI memory demand while also carefully assessing risks from industry cycles and Chinese supplier expansion.