Your thoughts cannot stop at the starting point, Dali, Shihjin, Shangxun, Huabang, Guoju, Qunchuang

I. Key Points and Technical Structure

Index Trends ・Taiwanese stocks are showing a pattern of opening low, fluctuating, and then recovering, with the index initially falling 587 points to 44,024 points before stabilizing. ・Buying support at 9:45 led to a final drop of 214 points, closing at 44,396 points. ・Trading volume shrank to approximately 94.15 billion yuan, indicating a more conservative appetite for chasing prices.

Technical Analysis ・The index remains above the 10-day and monthly lines, with the short-term bullish structure intact. ・The 45K-46K range remains a resistance area with trapped sellers, requiring time to digest. ・The 42K-43K range has clear support, establishing a range-bound trading pattern.

OTC Market ・The OTC index continued to rise with fluctuations, closing up 7.62 points at 391.37 points. ・It held above the 10-day and monthly lines, with trading volume steadily increasing to 22.34 billion yuan. ・Mid and small-cap stocks remained relatively strong, with funds rotating into thematic stocks.

II. Key Factors Affecting Market Trends

International Macroeconomic Variables ・Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions are affecting the energy supply chain and oil prices. ・Inflation concerns are resurfacing, increasing uncertainty in global central bank policies.

Tech Stock Earnings Interference ・SpaceX and AMD's earnings fell short of high market expectations, leading to stock price corrections. ・The market is adjusting its short-term expectations for AI growth, affecting fund flows.

Funds and Capital Flow ・Foreign investors are "correcting and replenishing," shifting to a more bullish stance. ・The semiconductor sector has undergone deleveraging, with funds gradually settling. ・National team, investment trusts, ETFs, and returning funds are providing downside support.

III. Market Outlook and Strategic Judgment

Index Rhythm ・The Taiwanese stock market is expected to show a "V-shaped rebound plus range-bound fluctuation" pattern in August. ・The index is expected to range between 42K and 46K, consolidating sideways. ・Time is being used to create space, allowing for fund settlement and bottom-building.

Medium-Term Outlook ・As negative factors gradually fade and are exhausted, market confidence will stabilize. ・The U.S. midterm elections and year-end rally are expected to take over. ・From September to Q4, there is a chance for another high-record rally.

IV. Industry and Sector Highlights

AI and Semiconductor Focus ・AI infrastructure is still in the early stages of expansion, with the long-term trend unchanged. ・CSP capital expenditures are continuing to increase, with short-term free cash flow pressure being a normal phenomenon. ・Wafer foundries (TSMC, UMC), packaging and testing (ASE), and ASIC (Innolux, Shihjin, MediaTek) are continuing to benefit.

AI Supply Chain Expansion ・Demand is expanding to ASIC, advanced packaging, memory, network communication equipment, and power infrastructure. ・High-speed transmission and computing power needs are driving the entire semiconductor value chain.

Optical Communication and Policy Benefits ・The U.S. plans to restrict Chinese optical communication equipment, driving transfer orders. ・Taiwanese optical communication companies are benefiting from the growth in demand for 800G and 1.6T high-speed modules. ・Lian Jia's strong performance is making the sector a market focus.

Other Sectors to Watch ・AI servers, PCB/CCL, ABF substrates ・CPO silicon photonics, memory, passive components ・Advanced packaging and testing equipment, low-orbit satellites, robotics concept stocks

V. Operational Strategy Recommendations

Stock Selection Logic ・Focus on stocks with "AI growth potential + industry trends + strong positioning." ・Avoid stocks that are purely speculative or lack fundamental strength.

Operational Principles ・Adopt a "buy low, don't chase high" strategy to avoid emotional entry. ・During range-bound fluctuations, pay attention to timing and fund management.

Risk Management ・Strictly adhere to capital allocation and stop-loss discipline. ・Be mindful of international political and economic variables and market sentiment volatility.

Summary: The Taiwanese stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, with short-term fluctuations due to news. However, in the medium to long term, supported by AI industry trends, fund inflows, and fundamentals, the structure remains bullish. Operationally, focus on stock selection, positioning in growth sectors during fluctuations, and preparing for the Q4 rally.

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Article source: Lun Yuan Investment Consulting Analyst Chen Xuejin

The individual securities analyzed and recommended by our company Have no improper financial interest relationships. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, carefully evaluate, and bear investment risks themselves.