Foreign Institutions Unanimously Advocate 'Overweight China' in Q3! Neuberger Berman: AI Capital Expenditure Emerges as New Macro Engine, Benefiting Three Major Industries

U.S. asset management firm Neuberger Berman has maintained its 'overweight' rating on Chinese equities in its latest third-quarter global asset allocation outlook, explicitly pointing to the ongoing intensification of the AI capital expenditure cycle and structural opportunities in China and emerging markets.

At the same time, multiple foreign institutions, including AllianceBernstein and Morgan Stanley, have identified geopolitical tensions and AI adoption as the two dominant themes extending through 2026. Against the backdrop of accelerating AI spending and diverging global monetary policies, they have expressed a cautiously optimistic view on China's equity and bond markets for the second half of this year.

On the macro front, AllianceBernstein's Fixed Income Investment Director, He Min, noted that while geopolitical conflicts may persist, the global economy as a whole will remain resilient. Inflation is expected to stay elevated in the second half of the year, with oil price impacts lagging. Monetary policies will diverge, with Europe, Australia, and Japan in rate-hiking cycles, while the U.S. is likely to maintain a neutral interest rate and remain on hold.

Neuberger Berman emphasized that AI-related capital expenditures have spilled beyond the tech sector into power, utilities, industrial manufacturing, and semiconductors, becoming the core engine driving the current macroeconomic expansion.

Regarding the AI investment theme, foreign institutions broadly agree on strong fundamentals but increasing volatility. AllianceBernstein's Market Strategy Head, Li Changfeng, believes the heightened volatility in tech stocks in the second half of the year is primarily due to a slowdown in the pace of upward revisions to fundamentals, not an economic downturn.

Overall, foreign institutions are treating AI capital expenditures as a new anchor for asset pricing and are seeking asset combinations in China that offer both growth and defensive characteristics. This indicates that global capital's allocation logic toward Chinese equities is shifting from 'trading recovery' to 'trading structural alpha'.